KSAN / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST10%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

13%

Consensus

10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 17.1¢Risks 17.15u

WN2NO 82.8¢Risks 82.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +82.85u · WN2 −82.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	31.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	9.6%	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	0.1%	17.6%	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	9.6%	16.6%	0.7%	—	4.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	11.7%	57.3%	11.7%	—	4.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	5.8%	20.0%	24.5%	—	3.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	15.9%	49.2%	17.4%	—	3.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	14.8%	31.5%	47.5%	—	3.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	3.6%	44.9%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	17.8%	15.6%	24.8%	5.4%	2.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	10.8%	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	5.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	37%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
ICON	30%	79.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	18%	78.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	76.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	74.1°F	4.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	73.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	75.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261024-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: San Diego runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗