KSAN / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST10%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

13%

Consensus

10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 17.1¢Risks 17.15u

WN2NO 82.8¢Risks 82.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +82.85u · WN2 −82.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:45:23+00:00	15.2%	0.2%	14.4%	8.7%	7.8%
2026-10-17T08:31:11+00:00	15.2%	0.2%	14.4%	8.7%	7.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	15.2%	0.2%	14.4%	8.7%	7.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	15.2%	0.2%	14.4%	8.7%	7.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	15.2%	0.2%	14.4%	8.7%	7.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:18+00:00	15.2%	0.1%	10.5%	8.7%	7.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	15.2%	0.1%	10.5%	8.7%	7.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	15.2%	0.1%	10.5%	8.7%	7.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00	16.1%	0.1%	10.5%	8.7%	7.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	16.1%	0.1%	10.5%	8.6%	8.0%
2026-10-17T15:25:22+00:00	16.1%	0.4%	10.5%	8.6%	8.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	16.1%	0.4%	10.5%	8.6%	8.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	16.1%	0.4%	11.6%	8.6%	8.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	16.1%	0.4%	11.6%	8.6%	8.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	16.1%	0.4%	11.6%	8.6%	8.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	16.1%	0.4%	11.6%	8.6%	8.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00	12.9%	0.4%	11.6%	11.9%	39.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	12.9%	0.4%	11.6%	11.9%	39.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	12.9%	0.4%	11.6%	11.9%	39.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	12.9%	0.4%	11.6%	11.9%	39.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	12.9%	0.4%	9.8%	11.9%	39.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	12.9%	0.4%	9.8%	11.9%	39.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	12.9%	0.4%	9.8%	11.9%	39.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	12.9%	0.4%	9.8%	11.9%	39.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	15.2%	0.4%	9.8%	11.9%	39.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	15.2%	0.4%	9.8%	11.9%	39.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	15.2%	0.4%	9.8%	11.9%	39.3%
2026-10-18T04:15:00+00:00	15.2%	0.4%	9.8%	11.9%	39.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	15.2%	0.4%	8.8%	11.9%	39.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	15.2%	0.4%	8.8%	11.9%	39.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	15.2%	0.4%	8.8%	11.9%	39.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	15.2%	0.4%	8.8%	11.9%	39.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:58+00:00	20.3%	0.4%	8.8%	17.0%	34.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	20.3%	0.4%	8.8%	17.0%	34.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	20.3%	0.4%	8.8%	17.0%	34.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	20.3%	0.4%	8.8%	17.0%	34.8%
2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00	20.3%	2.6%	10.0%	17.0%	34.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	20.3%	2.6%	10.0%	17.0%	34.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00	20.3%	2.6%	10.0%	17.0%	34.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	20.3%	2.6%	10.0%	17.0%	34.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	17.8%	2.7%	9.9%	17.0%	34.8%
2026-10-18T14:56:13+00:00	17.8%	2.7%	9.9%	17.0%	34.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	17.8%	3.0%	9.9%	17.0%	34.8%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	17.8%	3.0%	9.9%	17.0%	34.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	17.8%	3.0%	8.2%	17.0%	34.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:39+00:00	17.8%	3.0%	8.2%	17.0%	34.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	17.8%	3.0%	8.2%	17.0%	34.8%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	14.6%	3.0%	8.2%	18.2%	26.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	14.6%	3.0%	8.2%	18.2%	26.5%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	14.6%	3.0%	8.2%	18.2%	26.5%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	14.6%	3.0%	8.2%	18.2%	26.5%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	14.6%	3.0%	8.2%	18.2%	26.5%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	14.6%	3.0%	8.5%	18.2%	26.5%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	14.6%	3.0%	8.5%	18.2%	26.5%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	14.6%	3.0%	8.5%	18.2%	26.5%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	13.4%	3.0%	8.5%	18.2%	26.5%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	13.4%	3.0%	8.5%	18.2%	26.5%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	13.4%	3.0%	8.5%	18.2%	26.5%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	13.4%	3.0%	8.5%	18.2%	26.5%
2026-10-19T04:31:35+00:00	13.4%	3.0%	8.5%	18.2%	26.5%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	13.4%	3.0%	11.1%	18.2%	26.5%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	13.4%	3.0%	11.1%	18.2%	26.5%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	13.4%	3.0%	11.1%	18.2%	26.5%
2026-10-19T07:33:58+00:00	14.7%	3.0%	11.1%	9.8%	35.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	14.7%	3.0%	11.1%	9.8%	35.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	14.7%	3.0%	11.1%	9.8%	35.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	14.7%	3.0%	11.1%	9.8%	35.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:28+00:00	14.7%	3.0%	11.1%	9.8%	35.4%
2026-10-19T11:21:22+00:00	14.7%	13.2%	7.6%	9.8%	35.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00	14.7%	13.2%	7.6%	9.8%	35.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	14.7%	13.2%	7.6%	9.8%	35.4%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	12.5%	13.2%	7.6%	9.8%	35.4%
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00	12.4%	13.2%	7.6%	9.7%	35.3%
2026-10-19T15:14:00+00:00	12.4%	13.7%	7.6%	9.7%	35.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	12.4%	13.7%	7.6%	9.7%	35.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	12.4%	13.7%	7.6%	9.7%	35.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	12.4%	13.7%	7.2%	9.7%	35.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	12.4%	13.7%	7.2%	9.7%	35.3%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00	12.4%	13.7%	7.2%	9.7%	35.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	12.8%	13.7%	7.2%	9.1%	35.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	12.8%	13.7%	7.2%	9.1%	35.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	12.8%	13.7%	7.2%	9.1%	35.3%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	12.8%	13.7%	7.2%	9.1%	35.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	12.8%	13.7%	7.2%	9.1%	35.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	12.8%	13.7%	5.4%	9.1%	35.3%
2026-10-20T00:17:11+00:00	12.8%	13.7%	5.4%	9.1%	35.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	12.8%	13.7%	5.4%	9.1%	35.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	11.6%	13.7%	5.4%	9.1%	35.3%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	11.6%	13.7%	5.4%	9.1%	35.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	11.6%	13.7%	5.4%	9.1%	35.3%
2026-10-20T04:05:50+00:00	11.6%	13.7%	5.4%	9.1%	35.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	11.6%	13.7%	5.4%	9.1%	35.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00	11.6%	13.7%	5.7%	9.1%	35.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	11.6%	13.7%	5.7%	9.1%	35.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	11.6%	13.7%	5.7%	9.1%	35.3%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	15.2%	13.7%	5.7%	9.1%	30.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	15.2%	13.7%	5.7%	9.1%	30.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	15.2%	13.7%	5.7%	9.1%	30.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	15.2%	13.7%	5.7%	9.1%	30.4%
2026-10-20T10:54:26+00:00	15.2%	6.7%	4.5%	6.2%	30.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00	15.2%	6.7%	4.5%	6.2%	30.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	15.2%	6.7%	4.5%	6.2%	30.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	15.2%	6.7%	4.5%	6.2%	30.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00	15.2%	6.7%	4.5%	6.1%	30.3%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00	15.2%	6.7%	4.5%	6.1%	30.3%
2026-10-20T15:32:51+00:00	15.2%	6.3%	4.5%	6.1%	30.3%
2026-10-20T16:18:04+00:00	15.2%	6.3%	4.5%	6.1%	30.3%
2026-10-20T17:03:32+00:00	13.2%	6.3%	4.0%	6.1%	30.3%
2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:00	13.2%	6.3%	4.0%	6.1%	30.3%
2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:00	13.2%	6.3%	4.0%	6.1%	30.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	37%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
ICON	30%	79.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	18%	78.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	76.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	74.1°F	4.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	73.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	75.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261024-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: San Diego runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗