KSAN / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

77%

76%

72%

70%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 73.8¢Risks 18.44u

EPSNO 26.2¢Risks 6.56u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +6.56u · EPS −6.56u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	33.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	30.4%	—	—	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	—	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	34.3%	—	45.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	60.8%	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	—	69.9%	—	—	44.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	94.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	45.3%	8.0%	98.7%	—	—	43.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	96.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	48.6%	65.7%	90.7%	38.2%	—	49.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	99.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	96.5%	99.2%	92.1%	—	55.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	51.5%	—	98.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	89.7%	98.9%	93.5%	—	56.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	97.0%	94.1%	97.6%	71.2%	61.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	97.2%	—	—	57.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	77%	77.3°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	77%	76.3°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	76%	79.4°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	75.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	75.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	73.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261025-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗