KSAN / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

77%

76%

72%

70%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 73.8¢Risks 18.44u

EPSNO 26.2¢Risks 6.56u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +6.56u · EPS −6.56u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:01:58+00:00	72.9%	61.0%	64.2%	58.0%	35.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	72.9%	61.0%	64.2%	58.0%	35.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	72.9%	61.0%	64.2%	58.0%	35.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	72.9%	61.0%	64.2%	58.0%	35.9%
2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00	72.9%	69.1%	74.1%	58.0%	35.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	72.9%	69.1%	74.1%	58.0%	35.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00	72.9%	69.1%	74.1%	58.0%	35.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	72.9%	69.1%	74.1%	58.0%	35.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	78.8%	69.1%	74.1%	58.0%	35.6%
2026-10-18T14:56:13+00:00	78.8%	69.1%	74.1%	58.0%	35.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	78.8%	70.3%	74.1%	58.0%	35.6%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	78.8%	70.3%	74.1%	58.0%	35.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	78.8%	70.3%	74.1%	58.0%	35.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:39+00:00	78.8%	70.3%	74.1%	58.0%	35.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	78.8%	70.3%	74.1%	58.0%	35.6%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	75.1%	70.3%	74.1%	77.2%	75.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	75.1%	70.3%	74.1%	77.2%	75.5%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	75.1%	70.3%	74.1%	77.2%	75.5%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	75.1%	70.3%	74.1%	77.2%	75.5%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	75.1%	70.3%	74.1%	77.2%	75.5%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	75.1%	70.3%	77.1%	77.2%	75.5%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	75.1%	70.3%	77.1%	77.2%	75.5%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	75.1%	70.3%	77.1%	77.2%	75.5%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	72.3%	70.3%	77.1%	77.2%	75.5%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	72.3%	70.3%	77.1%	77.2%	75.5%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	72.3%	70.3%	77.1%	77.2%	75.5%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	72.3%	70.3%	77.1%	77.2%	75.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	77%	77.3°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	77%	76.3°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	76%	79.4°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	75.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	75.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	73.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261025-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗