KSAN / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

52%

51%

50%

44%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 67.2¢Risks 67.25u

EPSNO 32.8¢Risks 32.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +32.75u · EPS −32.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	24.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	36.9%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	44.8%	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	82.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	21.3%	1.8%	94.0%	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	87.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	38.2%	73.1%	15.8%	—	23.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	94.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	23.7%	86.1%	95.4%	75.1%	—	27.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	93.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	20.5%	69.1%	93.7%	77.2%	—	27.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	94.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	86.0%	77.6%	88.1%	40.5%	30.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	86.1%	—	—	26.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	91%	86.0°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	78.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	77.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	76.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	76.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	76.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	75.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261025-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗