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KSAN / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
91%
AIFS
52%
HRES
51%
WN2
50%
EPS
44%
Consensus
58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 67.2¢Risks 67.25u
VS
EPSNO 32.8¢Risks 32.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +32.75u · EPS −32.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-19T04:31:35+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00AIFS Single: 52.2% · 2026-10-19T07:33:58+00:00AIFS Single: 52.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00AIFS Single: 52.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00AIFS Single: 52.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00AIFS Single: 52.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:28+00:00AIFS Single: 52.2% · 2026-10-19T11:21:22+00:00AIFS Single: 52.2% · 2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00AIFS Single: 52.2% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00AIFS Single: 52.2% · 2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00AIFS Single: 52.2% · 2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.9% · 2026-10-19T04:31:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.9% · 2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.9% · 2026-10-19T07:33:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.6% · 2026-10-19T11:21:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.6% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.6% · 2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.6% · 2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.4% · 2026-10-19T04:31:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.9% · 2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.9% · 2026-10-19T07:33:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T11:21:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00IFS HRES: 54.9% · 2026-10-19T04:31:35+00:00IFS HRES: 54.9% · 2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00IFS HRES: 54.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00IFS HRES: 54.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:58+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:28+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T11:21:22+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00ICON: 61.4% · 2026-10-19T04:31:35+00:00ICON: 61.4% · 2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00ICON: 61.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00ICON: 61.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00ICON: 91.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:58+00:00ICON: 91.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00ICON: 91.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00ICON: 91.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00ICON: 91.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:28+00:00ICON: 91.0% · 2026-10-19T11:21:22+00:00ICON: 91.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00ICON: 91.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00ICON: 91.0% · 2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00ICON: 90.9% · 2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:0010-19 04:3110-19 09:4910-19 14:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:31:35+00:0045.8%43.9%48.4%54.9%61.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:0045.8%43.9%46.9%54.9%61.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:0045.8%43.9%46.9%54.9%61.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:0045.8%43.9%46.9%54.9%61.4%
2026-10-19T07:33:58+00:0052.2%43.9%46.9%50.6%91.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:0052.2%43.9%46.9%50.6%91.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:0052.2%43.9%46.9%50.6%91.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:0052.2%43.9%46.9%50.6%91.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:28+00:0052.2%43.9%46.9%50.6%91.0%
2026-10-19T11:21:22+00:0052.2%43.6%50.0%50.6%91.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:0052.2%43.6%50.0%50.6%91.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:0052.2%43.6%50.0%50.6%91.0%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:0052.2%43.6%50.0%50.6%91.0%
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:0052.2%43.6%50.0%50.6%90.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON91%86.0°F7.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend59%78.0°F6.7°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
NWS forecast53%77.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
AIFS Single52%76.8°F5.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS HRES51%76.6°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 250%76.5°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble44%75.7°F5.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261025-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗