KSAN / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

74%

64%

56%

35%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 55.0¢Risks 55.00u

ICONNO 45.0¢Risks 45.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.00u · ICON −45.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	42.8%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	90.4%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	53.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	37.2%	—	—	37.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	71.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	7.5%	96.6%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	62.9%	—	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	51.4%	88.1%	93.3%	38.9%	—	48.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	91.0%	80.6%	95.2%	58.0%	56.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	98.4%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	75%	77.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	77.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	64%	75.4°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	74.6°F	6.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	74.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	35%	69.6°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261026-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 74°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗