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KSAN / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
75%
AIFS
74%
WN2
64%
EPS
56%
ICON
35%
Consensus
64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 55.0¢Risks 55.00u
VS
ICONNO 45.0¢Risks 45.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.00u · ICON −45.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:58+00:00AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.5% · 2026-10-19T07:33:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:28+00:00IFS HRES: 75.2% · 2026-10-19T07:33:58+00:00IFS HRES: 75.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00IFS HRES: 75.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00IFS HRES: 75.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS HRES: 75.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:28+00:00ICON: 34.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:58+00:00ICON: 34.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00ICON: 34.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00ICON: 34.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00ICON: 34.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:28+00:0010-19 07:3310-19 09:0410-19 10:35
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:35:28+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:33:58+00:0074.0%56.5%63.6%75.2%34.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:0074.0%56.5%63.6%75.2%34.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:0074.0%56.5%63.6%75.2%34.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:0074.0%56.5%63.6%75.2%34.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:28+00:0074.0%56.5%63.6%75.2%34.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES75%77.9°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single74%77.2°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 264%75.4°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble56%74.6°F6.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend53%74.0°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON35%69.6°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261026-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 74°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗