KSAN / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

45%

39%

26%

25%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 50.4¢Risks 50.40u

EPSNO 49.6¢Risks 49.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +49.60u · EPS −49.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	13.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	13.7%	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	64.1%	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	9.6%	—	—	9.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.9%	0.7%	79.2%	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	88.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	54.9%	67.0%	9.0%	—	13.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	59.4%	40.6%	71.5%	18.4%	17.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	84.9%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	75%	84.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	80.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	80.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	78.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	39%	78.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	76.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	25%	76.6°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261026-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗