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KSAN / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
75%
HRES
45%
AIFS
39%
WN2
26%
EPS
25%
Consensus
41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 50.4¢Risks 50.40u
VS
EPSNO 49.6¢Risks 49.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +49.60u · EPS −49.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 35.7% · 2026-10-20T04:05:50+00:00AIFS Single: 35.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00AIFS Single: 35.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00AIFS Single: 35.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00AIFS Single: 35.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00AIFS Single: 39.1% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00AIFS Single: 39.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00AIFS Single: 39.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00AIFS Single: 39.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00AIFS Single: 39.1% · 2026-10-20T10:54:26+00:00AIFS Single: 39.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00AIFS Single: 39.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 39.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.6% · 2026-10-20T04:05:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.6% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.4% · 2026-10-20T10:54:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.4% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.8% · 2026-10-20T04:05:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.1% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00IFS HRES: 48.8% · 2026-10-20T04:05:50+00:00IFS HRES: 48.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00IFS HRES: 48.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00IFS HRES: 48.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS HRES: 48.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS HRES: 48.8% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00IFS HRES: 48.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00IFS HRES: 48.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00IFS HRES: 48.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS HRES: 44.6% · 2026-10-20T10:54:26+00:00IFS HRES: 44.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00IFS HRES: 44.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 44.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS HRES: 44.6% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00IFS HRES: 44.6% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00ICON: 70.1% · 2026-10-20T04:05:50+00:00ICON: 70.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00ICON: 70.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00ICON: 70.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00ICON: 70.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00ICON: 75.4% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00ICON: 75.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00ICON: 75.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00ICON: 75.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00ICON: 75.4% · 2026-10-20T10:54:26+00:00ICON: 75.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00ICON: 75.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00ICON: 75.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00ICON: 75.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00ICON: 75.4% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:0010-20 04:0510-20 09:2210-20 14:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:05:50+00:0035.7%31.6%27.8%48.8%70.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:0035.7%31.6%27.8%48.8%70.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:0035.7%31.6%29.1%48.8%70.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:0035.7%31.6%29.1%48.8%70.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:0035.7%31.6%29.1%48.8%70.1%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:0039.1%31.6%29.1%48.8%75.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:0039.1%31.6%29.1%48.8%75.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:0039.1%31.6%29.1%48.8%75.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:0039.1%31.6%29.1%48.8%75.4%
2026-10-20T10:54:26+00:0039.1%25.4%26.0%44.6%75.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:0039.1%25.4%26.0%44.6%75.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:0039.1%25.4%26.0%44.6%75.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:0039.1%25.4%26.0%44.6%75.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:0039.0%25.4%26.0%44.6%75.4%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:0039.0%25.4%26.0%44.6%75.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON75%84.4°F7.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%80.0°F5.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
National Blend53%80.0°F7.8°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES45%78.6°F6.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single39%78.0°F5.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 226%76.5°F4.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble25%76.6°F4.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261026-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗