KSAN / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

33%

26%

14%

13%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 39.5¢Risks 39.50u

EPSNO 60.5¢Risks 60.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +60.50u · EPS −60.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	8.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	8.1%	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	51.9%	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	5.1%	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	22.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	0.3%	68.2%	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	79.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	40.9%	53.5%	4.5%	—	7.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	83.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	44.9%	27.2%	58.0%	10.3%	9.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	74.4%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	66%	84.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	42%	80.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	40%	80.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	78.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	78.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	76.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	13%	76.6°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261026-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: San Diego runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗