KSAN / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 12.2¢Risks 12.15u

WN2NO 87.9¢Risks 87.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +87.85u · WN2 −87.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.4%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	11.3%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.2%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.0%	18.9%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	5.1%	9.3%	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	5.5%	1.9%	10.3%	0.3%	0.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	20.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	24%	84.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	79.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	79.3°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	80.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	78.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	76.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	76.7°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261026-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 20 · 05:36 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in San Diego · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗