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KSAN / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
24%
HRES
6%
AIFS
2%
EPS
1%
WN2
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 12.2¢Risks 12.15u
VS
WN2NO 87.9¢Risks 87.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +87.85u · WN2 −87.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.4% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.6% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS HRES: 5.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00IFS HRES: 5.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS HRES: 5.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS HRES: 5.7% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00IFS HRES: 5.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00IFS HRES: 5.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00IFS HRES: 5.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00ICON: 32.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00ICON: 32.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00ICON: 32.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00ICON: 23.7% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00ICON: 23.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00ICON: 23.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00ICON: 23.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:0010-20 05:3610-20 07:5210-20 10:07
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:001.8%1.4%0.6%5.7%32.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:001.8%1.4%0.6%5.7%32.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:001.8%1.4%0.6%5.7%32.0%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:001.7%1.4%0.6%5.7%23.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:001.7%1.4%0.6%5.7%23.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:001.7%1.4%0.6%5.7%23.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:001.7%1.4%0.6%5.7%23.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON24%84.4°F7.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend9%79.0°F7.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES6%79.3°F6.4°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
NWS forecast5%80.0°F5.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
AIFS Single2%78.0°F5.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble1%76.7°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 2<1%76.7°F5.1°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261026-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 20 · 05:36 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in San Diego · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗