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KSAN / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST54%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
71%
EPS
62%
AIFS
56%
WN2
45%
ICON
24%
Consensus
54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 47.5¢Risks 47.55u
VS
ICONNO 52.4¢Risks 52.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +52.45u · ICON −52.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.8% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.9% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 57.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.9% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 48.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 90.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 95.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 97.4% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 28.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 90.5% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 33.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 12:0010-16 12:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:003.4%———19.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0011.5%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0038.5%———24.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0022.0%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0022.0%———30.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0018.9%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:006.8%———27.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0024.8%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:009.8%———27.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0050.0%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0023.6%———34.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0014.3%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0012.6%———27.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0028.3%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:005.8%———25.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0011.5%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0011.9%———21.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0011.3%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0017.4%———20.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0020.8%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0012.4%———18.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0014.5%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0014.8%—57.6%—17.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0023.2%—21.0%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0025.2%———19.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0027.3%—12.9%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0027.0%—48.1%—23.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0036.8%—90.3%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0024.1%—95.0%—25.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0028.0%—97.4%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0028.8%2.4%28.8%33.6%31.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0047.9%—90.5%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES71%80.1°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble62%78.3°F5.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single56%77.4°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend53%77.0°F7.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 245%75.9°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON24%69.4°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261027-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗