KSAN / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

29%

24%

14%

11%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 26.4¢Risks 26.35u

ICONNO 73.6¢Risks 73.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +73.65u · ICON −73.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	7.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	5.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	29.3%	—	4.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	6.0%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	2.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	20.2%	—	6.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	69.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	79.8%	—	6.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	86.7%	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	0.2%	8.0%	10.2%	9.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	67.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	41%	80.1°F	6.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	29%	78.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	28%	77.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	24%	77.4°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	75.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	11%	69.4°F	10.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261027-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: San Diego runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗