WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KSAN / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
41%
EPS
29%
AIFS
24%
WN2
14%
ICON
11%
Consensus
19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 26.4¢Risks 26.35u
VS
ICONNO 73.6¢Risks 73.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +73.65u · ICON −73.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 23.8% · 2026-10-20T10:54:26+00:00AIFS Single: 23.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00AIFS Single: 23.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 23.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00AIFS Single: 23.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00AIFS Single: 23.7% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.2% · 2026-10-20T10:54:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.2% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.6% · 2026-10-20T10:54:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.6% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.6% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00IFS HRES: 41.4% · 2026-10-20T10:54:26+00:00IFS HRES: 41.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00IFS HRES: 41.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 41.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS HRES: 41.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00IFS HRES: 41.4% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00ICON: 11.4% · 2026-10-20T10:54:26+00:00ICON: 11.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00ICON: 11.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00ICON: 11.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00ICON: 11.3% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00ICON: 11.3% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:0010-20 10:5410-20 13:1010-20 14:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:54:26+00:0023.8%29.2%13.6%41.4%11.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:0023.8%29.2%13.6%41.4%11.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:0023.8%29.2%13.6%41.4%11.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:0023.8%29.2%13.6%41.4%11.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:0023.7%29.2%13.6%41.4%11.3%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:0023.7%29.2%13.6%41.4%11.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES41%80.1°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble29%78.3°F5.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend28%77.0°F7.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
AIFS Single24%77.4°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 214%75.9°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON11%69.4°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261027-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: San Diego runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗