KSAT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

42%

26%

20%

11%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 44.4¢Risks 44.40u

WN2NO 55.6¢Risks 55.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +55.60u · WN2 −55.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	92.8%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	91.4%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	42.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	81.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	6.1%	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	3.2%	—	—	66.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	4.5%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	22.4%	29.8%	28.1%	—	60.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	90.7%	80.1%	58.0%	—	81.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	70.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	95.2%	78.9%	51.5%	—	72.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	79.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	78.8%	86.4%	43.6%	—	61.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	79.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	71.4%	74.2%	28.6%	—	47.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	19.0%	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	30.7%	47.4%	32.2%	—	32.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	42.0%	43.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	36.4%	33.0%	23.7%	—	23.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	29.2%	38.8%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	15.9%	34.8%	25.5%	—	25.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	24.1%	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	21.2%	39.8%	19.7%	—	23.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	19.8%	33.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	23.0%	39.2%	14.9%	—	25.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	24.0%	31.5%	0.0%	—	22.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	21.5%	34.1%	13.4%	—	26.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	20.8%	33.6%	16.7%	—	21.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	27.6%	33.1%	22.7%	4.9%	20.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	29.1%	18.2%	20.9%	—	15.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	26.2%	22.0%	19.1%	5.0%	9.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	30.0%	18.2%	18.2%	—	9.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	34.5%	10.2%	16.3%	5.1%	13.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	24.8%	14.4%	11.2%	—	4.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	13.4%	16.1%	14.2%	0.5%	4.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	18.1%	17.0%	16.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	78%	76.2°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.6022
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.3036
IFS HRES	42%	73.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.1764
AIFS Single	26%	71.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0655
National Blend	25%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0625
ICON	20%	71.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0384
WeatherNext 2	11%	70.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0125

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261018-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗