KSAT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

42%

26%

20%

11%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 44.4¢Risks 44.40u

WN2NO 55.6¢Risks 55.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +55.60u · WN2 −55.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:29+00:00	25.7%	84.1%	16.0%	35.9%	51.7%
2026-10-15T04:48:03+00:00	25.7%	84.1%	16.0%	35.9%	51.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	25.7%	84.1%	18.8%	35.9%	51.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	25.7%	84.1%	18.8%	35.9%	51.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	25.7%	84.1%	18.8%	35.9%	51.7%
2026-10-15T07:50:13+00:00	20.7%	84.1%	18.8%	42.0%	19.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	20.7%	84.1%	18.8%	42.0%	19.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	20.7%	84.1%	18.8%	42.0%	19.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	20.7%	84.1%	18.8%	42.0%	19.6%
2026-10-15T10:53:41+00:00	20.7%	84.1%	11.2%	42.0%	19.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	20.7%	84.1%	11.2%	42.0%	19.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00	20.7%	77.7%	11.2%	42.0%	19.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00	20.7%	77.7%	11.2%	42.0%	19.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	25.6%	77.6%	11.2%	42.0%	19.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	25.6%	77.6%	11.2%	42.0%	19.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	78%	76.2°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.6022
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.3036
IFS HRES	42%	73.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.1764
AIFS Single	26%	71.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0655
National Blend	25%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0625
ICON	20%	71.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0384
WeatherNext 2	11%	70.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0125

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261018-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗