KSAT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 76°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

73%

47%

42%

39%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 65.8¢Risks 65.80u

WN2NO 34.2¢Risks 34.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +34.20u · WN2 −34.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	4.5%	—	—	70.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	2.2%	—	—	60.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	3.1%	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	17.5%	24.1%	22.4%	—	53.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	47.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	87.2%	74.6%	50.7%	—	75.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	93.0%	73.0%	43.9%	—	65.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	73.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	72.6%	81.6%	35.9%	—	54.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	73.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	63.9%	67.0%	21.9%	—	39.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	13.7%	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	23.4%	38.8%	24.8%	—	24.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	33.4%	35.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	28.2%	25.1%	17.2%	—	16.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	21.7%	30.1%	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	10.7%	26.3%	18.3%	—	18.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	17.0%	37.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	14.5%	30.3%	13.4%	—	16.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	13.2%	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	15.5%	29.2%	9.4%	—	17.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	16.1%	22.3%	0.0%	—	14.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	14.0%	24.2%	8.1%	—	17.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	13.2%	23.4%	10.2%	—	13.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	18.2%	22.7%	14.4%	2.5%	13.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	19.1%	10.9%	12.8%	—	8.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	16.5%	13.4%	11.3%	2.4%	5.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	19.1%	10.4%	10.4%	—	4.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	22.2%	5.1%	8.9%	2.3%	7.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	14.4%	7.5%	5.6%	—	1.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	6.6%	8.3%	7.1%	0.1%	2.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	9.2%	8.6%	7.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	93%	84.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.8593
IFS Ensemble	73%	79.6°F	6.7°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.5329
National Blend	52%	76.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2735
ICON	47%	74.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.2190
AIFS Single	42%	74.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.1781
WeatherNext 2	39%	74.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.1513

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261018-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 76°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗