KSAT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 76°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

73%

47%

42%

39%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 65.8¢Risks 65.80u

WN2NO 34.2¢Risks 34.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +34.20u · WN2 −34.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:32:29+00:00	17.1%	82.0%	47.7%	94.4%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	17.1%	82.0%	47.7%	94.4%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	17.1%	82.0%	47.7%	94.4%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	17.1%	82.0%	47.7%	94.4%	—
2026-10-11T10:34:12+00:00	17.1%	82.0%	47.7%	94.4%	—
2026-10-11T11:20:10+00:00	17.1%	72.2%	26.5%	94.4%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	17.1%	72.2%	26.5%	94.4%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00	17.1%	72.2%	26.5%	94.4%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:54+00:00	40.8%	72.2%	26.5%	94.4%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00	40.8%	72.2%	26.5%	94.4%	—
2026-10-11T15:12:02+00:00	40.8%	73.0%	26.5%	94.4%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:20+00:00	40.8%	73.0%	26.5%	94.4%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	40.8%	73.0%	26.5%	94.4%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:03+00:00	40.8%	73.0%	27.2%	94.4%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00	40.8%	73.0%	27.2%	94.4%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:20+00:00	40.8%	73.0%	27.2%	94.4%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:33+00:00	55.0%	73.0%	27.2%	92.7%	46.8%
2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00	55.0%	73.0%	27.2%	92.7%	46.8%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	55.0%	73.0%	27.2%	92.7%	46.8%
2026-10-11T21:59:01+00:00	55.0%	73.0%	27.2%	92.7%	46.8%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	55.0%	73.0%	27.2%	92.7%	46.8%
2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00	55.0%	73.0%	38.9%	92.7%	46.8%
2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00	55.0%	73.0%	38.9%	92.7%	46.8%
2026-10-12T01:00:15+00:00	55.0%	73.0%	38.9%	92.7%	46.8%
2026-10-12T01:45:24+00:00	42.2%	73.0%	38.9%	92.7%	46.8%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	42.2%	73.0%	38.9%	92.7%	46.8%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	42.2%	73.0%	38.9%	92.7%	46.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	93%	84.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.8593
IFS Ensemble	73%	79.6°F	6.7°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.5329
National Blend	52%	76.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2735
ICON	47%	74.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.2190
AIFS Single	42%	74.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.1781
WeatherNext 2	39%	74.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.1513

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261018-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 76°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗