KSAT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

14%

12%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 7.6¢Risks 3.82u

WN2NO 92.3¢Risks 46.17u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.17u · WN2 −46.17u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	—	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	82.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	—	—	—	25.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	26.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	1.0%	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	0.4%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	0.5%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	5.1%	7.9%	7.2%	—	26.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	65.7%	47.1%	23.7%	—	48.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	34.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	76.1%	43.9%	17.9%	—	35.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	42.1%	54.0%	12.3%	—	24.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	41.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	31.5%	34.5%	5.3%	—	13.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	2.5%	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	5.4%	12.2%	5.9%	—	5.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	9.2%	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	6.6%	5.5%	3.0%	—	2.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	4.2%	7.0%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.3%	5.4%	3.0%	—	3.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.5%	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.8%	6.1%	1.6%	—	2.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.5%	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.7%	5.0%	0.8%	—	2.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.7%	2.9%	0.0%	—	1.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.2%	3.1%	0.5%	—	1.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.0%	2.7%	0.7%	—	1.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.6%	2.3%	1.0%	0.1%	0.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.5%	0.6%	0.8%	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.0%	0.7%	0.5%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.2%	0.4%	0.4%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.3%	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2970
National Blend	22%	76.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0475
IFS HRES	14%	74.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0210
ICON	12%	73.9°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0151
IFS Ensemble	10%	76.6°F	2.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0108
AIFS Single	3%	70.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0008
WeatherNext 2	<1%	70.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261018-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗