KSAT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

14%

12%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 7.6¢Risks 3.82u

WN2NO 92.3¢Risks 46.17u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.17u · WN2 −46.17u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:15+00:00	7.9%	58.8%	8.7%	39.8%	84.7%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	7.9%	58.8%	9.8%	39.8%	84.7%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	7.9%	58.8%	9.8%	39.8%	84.7%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	7.9%	58.8%	9.8%	39.8%	84.7%
2026-10-13T07:17:19+00:00	7.9%	58.8%	9.8%	39.8%	84.7%
2026-10-13T08:04:04+00:00	7.4%	58.8%	9.8%	31.4%	60.7%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	7.4%	58.8%	9.8%	31.4%	60.7%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	7.4%	58.8%	9.8%	31.4%	60.7%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	7.4%	58.8%	9.8%	31.4%	60.7%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	7.4%	53.3%	3.9%	31.4%	60.7%
2026-10-13T11:50:41+00:00	7.4%	53.3%	3.9%	31.4%	60.7%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	7.4%	53.3%	3.9%	31.4%	60.7%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	7.4%	53.3%	3.9%	31.4%	60.7%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	7.6%	53.3%	4.0%	31.4%	60.7%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	7.6%	53.3%	4.0%	31.4%	60.7%
2026-10-13T15:41:50+00:00	7.6%	53.3%	4.0%	31.4%	60.7%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	7.6%	53.3%	4.0%	31.6%	60.7%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	7.6%	53.3%	3.1%	31.6%	60.7%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	7.6%	53.3%	3.1%	31.6%	60.7%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	7.6%	53.3%	3.1%	31.6%	60.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	7.0%	53.3%	3.1%	31.6%	52.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	7.0%	53.3%	3.1%	31.6%	52.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	7.0%	53.3%	3.1%	31.6%	52.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	7.0%	53.3%	3.1%	31.6%	52.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	7.0%	53.3%	3.1%	27.5%	52.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	7.0%	53.3%	4.5%	27.2%	52.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	7.0%	53.3%	4.5%	27.2%	52.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	7.0%	53.3%	4.5%	27.2%	52.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00	4.5%	53.3%	4.5%	27.2%	52.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	4.5%	53.3%	4.5%	27.2%	52.0%
2026-10-14T03:00:01+00:00	4.5%	53.3%	4.5%	27.2%	52.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:36+00:00	4.5%	53.3%	4.5%	27.2%	52.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	4.5%	53.3%	4.5%	27.2%	52.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	4.5%	53.3%	4.5%	27.2%	52.0%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	4.5%	53.3%	4.5%	27.2%	52.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	4.5%	53.3%	4.5%	27.2%	52.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	2.8%	53.3%	4.5%	27.2%	11.8%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	2.8%	53.3%	4.5%	27.2%	11.8%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	2.8%	53.3%	4.5%	27.2%	11.8%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	2.8%	53.3%	4.5%	27.2%	11.8%
2026-10-14T10:34:11+00:00	2.8%	53.3%	4.5%	14.5%	11.8%
2026-10-14T11:20:58+00:00	2.8%	10.4%	0.8%	14.5%	11.8%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	2.8%	10.4%	0.8%	14.5%	11.8%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	2.8%	10.4%	0.8%	14.5%	11.8%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	2.9%	10.4%	0.8%	14.5%	11.8%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	2.9%	10.4%	0.8%	14.5%	12.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2970
National Blend	22%	76.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0475
IFS HRES	14%	74.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0210
ICON	12%	73.9°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0151
IFS Ensemble	10%	76.6°F	2.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0108
AIFS Single	3%	70.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0008
WeatherNext 2	<1%	70.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261018-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗