KSAT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

40%

35%

32%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 29.4¢Risks 29.45u

WN2NO 70.5¢Risks 70.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +70.55u · WN2 −70.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	40.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	62.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	60.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	62.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	17.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	25.7%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	0.3%	71.2%	—	—	70.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	35.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	95.1%	73.1%	1.6%	—	54.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	81.1%	34.3%	65.7%	—	60.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	73.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	87.5%	64.2%	35.8%	—	53.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	36.7%	27.4%	16.9%	—	29.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	52.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	21.9%	43.4%	8.7%	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	9.2%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	25.5%	44.8%	11.3%	—	21.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	28.7%	62.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	30.6%	55.5%	9.0%	—	18.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	23.1%	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	29.6%	40.4%	10.7%	—	12.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	26.5%	29.9%	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	33.0%	34.9%	13.9%	—	15.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	19.0%	19.0%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	31.1%	5.9%	21.3%	0.0%	11.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	22.3%	13.5%	0.0%	—	8.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	7.2%	20.7%	19.9%	0.6%	5.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	17.5%	0.2%	15.2%	—	5.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	5.9%	3.0%	21.7%	—	8.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	19.1%	3.7%	12.2%	—	8.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	29.5%	19.1%	25.1%	1.9%	5.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	40.3%	12.4%	27.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	35.8%	21.2%	20.2%	6.8%	9.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	35.2%	35.2%	20.2%	—	7.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	34.6%	6.1%	20.3%	11.0%	4.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	43.4%	37.0%	29.5%	—	12.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.2959
IFS Ensemble	50%	79.5°F	2.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.2500
ICON	40%	78.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.1560
AIFS Single	35%	77.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.1204
IFS HRES	32%	77.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0999
National Blend	29%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0835
WeatherNext 2	9%	74.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0079

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261019-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗