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KSAT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 14:48 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
50%
ICON
40%
AIFS
35%
HRES
32%
WN2
9%
Consensus
31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 29.4¢Risks 29.45u
VS
WN2NO 70.5¢Risks 70.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +70.55u · WN2 −70.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 27.3% · 2026-10-15T04:02:30+00:00AIFS Single: 27.3% · 2026-10-15T04:48:03+00:00AIFS Single: 27.3% · 2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00AIFS Single: 27.3% · 2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00AIFS Single: 27.3% · 2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-15T07:50:13+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-15T10:53:41+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00AIFS Single: 34.7% · 2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00AIFS Single: 34.7% · 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.2% · 2026-10-15T04:02:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.2% · 2026-10-15T04:48:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.2% · 2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.2% · 2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.2% · 2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.2% · 2026-10-15T07:50:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.2% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.2% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.2% · 2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.2% · 2026-10-15T10:53:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.2% · 2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.6% · 2026-10-15T04:02:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.6% · 2026-10-15T04:48:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.8% · 2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.8% · 2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.8% · 2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.8% · 2026-10-15T07:50:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.8% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.8% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.8% · 2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.9% · 2026-10-15T10:53:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.9% · 2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.9% · 2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.9% · 2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.9% · 2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.9% · 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00IFS HRES: 35.1% · 2026-10-15T04:02:30+00:00IFS HRES: 35.1% · 2026-10-15T04:48:03+00:00IFS HRES: 35.1% · 2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00IFS HRES: 35.1% · 2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00IFS HRES: 35.1% · 2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00IFS HRES: 31.6% · 2026-10-15T07:50:13+00:00IFS HRES: 31.6% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00IFS HRES: 31.6% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00IFS HRES: 31.6% · 2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00IFS HRES: 31.6% · 2026-10-15T10:53:41+00:00IFS HRES: 31.6% · 2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00IFS HRES: 31.6% · 2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00IFS HRES: 31.6% · 2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00IFS HRES: 31.6% · 2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00IFS HRES: 31.6% · 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00ICON: 42.7% · 2026-10-15T04:02:30+00:00ICON: 42.7% · 2026-10-15T04:48:03+00:00ICON: 42.7% · 2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00ICON: 42.7% · 2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00ICON: 42.7% · 2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00ICON: 39.4% · 2026-10-15T07:50:13+00:00ICON: 39.4% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00ICON: 39.4% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00ICON: 39.4% · 2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00ICON: 39.4% · 2026-10-15T10:53:41+00:00ICON: 39.4% · 2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00ICON: 39.4% · 2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00ICON: 39.4% · 2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00ICON: 39.5% · 2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00ICON: 39.5% · 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:0010-15 04:0210-15 09:2110-15 14:48
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T04:02:30+00:0027.3%60.2%12.6%35.1%42.7%
2026-10-15T04:48:03+00:0027.3%60.2%12.6%35.1%42.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:0027.3%60.2%17.8%35.1%42.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:0027.3%60.2%17.8%35.1%42.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:0027.3%60.2%17.8%35.1%42.7%
2026-10-15T07:50:13+00:008.9%60.2%17.8%31.6%39.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:008.9%60.2%17.8%31.6%39.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:008.9%60.2%17.8%31.6%39.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:008.9%60.2%17.8%31.6%39.4%
2026-10-15T10:53:41+00:008.9%60.2%8.9%31.6%39.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:008.9%60.2%8.9%31.6%39.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:008.9%50.0%8.9%31.6%39.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:008.9%50.0%8.9%31.6%39.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:0034.7%50.0%8.9%31.6%39.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:0034.7%50.0%8.9%31.6%39.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast54%80.0°F4.5°F2026-10-15 03:000.2959
IFS Ensemble50%79.5°F2.7°F2026-10-15 00:000.2500
ICON40%78.2°F4.9°F2026-10-15 00:000.1560
AIFS Single35%77.7°F4.6°F2026-10-15 06:000.1204
IFS HRES32%77.1°F5.0°F2026-10-15 00:000.0999
National Blend29%77.0°F4.5°F2026-10-15 06:000.0835
WeatherNext 29%74.5°F3.7°F2026-10-15 00:000.0079

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261019-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗