KSAT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

17%

15%

Consensus

12%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 16.1¢Risks 16.05u

WN2NO 84.0¢Risks 83.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +83.95u · WN2 −83.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	14.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	40.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	35.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	—	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	9.6%	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	33.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	0.0%	45.3%	—	—	43.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	14.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	82.9%	46.5%	0.2%	—	28.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	55.8%	12.8%	37.1%	—	32.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	44.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	64.9%	34.4%	12.9%	—	25.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	12.7%	8.1%	3.9%	—	9.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	5.3%	15.7%	1.4%	—	4.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	1.4%	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	6.2%	15.6%	1.8%	—	4.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	7.1%	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	7.6%	21.6%	1.2%	—	3.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	4.6%	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	6.5%	11.1%	1.3%	—	1.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	5.1%	6.3%	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	7.1%	7.8%	1.7%	—	1.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	2.6%	2.6%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	5.6%	0.4%	2.9%	0.0%	1.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.9%	1.3%	0.0%	—	0.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	2.4%	2.2%	0.0%	0.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.6%	0.0%	1.3%	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	2.1%	—	0.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.5%	0.1%	0.7%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.0%	1.3%	2.2%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.0%	0.5%	2.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.5%	1.2%	1.1%	0.2%	0.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.9%	2.9%	0.9%	—	0.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.4%	0.1%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.4%	2.3%	1.4%	—	0.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2894
National Blend	36%	81.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1260
ICON	30%	80.4°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0906
IFS HRES	17%	77.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0276
IFS Ensemble	15%	80.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0228
AIFS Single	6%	75.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0040
WeatherNext 2	2%	75.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0004

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261019-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 84°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗