KSAT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

17%

15%

Consensus

12%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 16.1¢Risks 16.05u

WN2NO 84.0¢Risks 83.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +83.95u · WN2 −83.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:16+00:00	3.2%	49.2%	1.9%	14.5%	84.1%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	3.2%	49.2%	9.5%	14.5%	84.1%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	3.2%	49.2%	9.5%	14.5%	84.1%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	3.2%	49.2%	9.5%	14.5%	84.1%
2026-10-13T07:17:19+00:00	3.2%	49.2%	9.5%	14.5%	84.1%
2026-10-13T08:04:04+00:00	4.2%	49.2%	9.5%	56.1%	73.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	4.2%	49.2%	9.5%	56.1%	73.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	4.2%	49.2%	9.5%	56.1%	73.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	4.2%	49.2%	9.5%	56.1%	73.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	4.2%	26.1%	6.0%	56.1%	73.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:41+00:00	4.2%	26.1%	6.0%	56.1%	73.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	4.2%	26.1%	6.0%	56.1%	73.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	4.2%	26.1%	6.0%	56.1%	73.0%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	9.3%	26.1%	6.1%	56.1%	73.4%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	9.3%	26.1%	6.1%	56.1%	73.4%
2026-10-13T15:41:50+00:00	9.3%	26.0%	6.1%	56.1%	73.4%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	9.3%	26.0%	6.1%	56.1%	73.4%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	9.3%	26.0%	9.1%	56.1%	73.4%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	9.3%	26.0%	9.1%	56.1%	73.4%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	9.3%	26.0%	9.1%	56.1%	73.4%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	3.7%	26.0%	9.1%	56.1%	78.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	3.7%	26.0%	9.1%	56.1%	78.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	3.7%	26.0%	9.1%	56.1%	78.7%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	3.7%	26.0%	9.1%	56.1%	78.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	3.7%	26.0%	9.1%	53.0%	78.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	3.7%	26.0%	6.1%	53.0%	78.6%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	3.7%	26.0%	6.1%	53.0%	78.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	3.7%	26.0%	6.1%	53.0%	78.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00	4.0%	26.0%	6.1%	53.0%	78.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	4.0%	26.0%	6.1%	53.0%	78.6%
2026-10-14T03:00:01+00:00	4.0%	26.0%	6.1%	53.0%	78.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:36+00:00	4.0%	26.0%	6.1%	53.0%	78.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	4.0%	26.0%	6.1%	53.0%	78.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	4.0%	26.0%	6.1%	53.0%	78.6%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	4.0%	26.0%	6.1%	53.0%	78.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	4.0%	26.0%	6.1%	53.0%	78.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	3.2%	26.0%	6.1%	53.0%	29.9%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	3.2%	26.0%	6.1%	53.0%	29.9%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	3.2%	26.0%	6.1%	53.0%	29.9%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	3.2%	26.0%	6.1%	53.0%	29.9%
2026-10-14T10:34:13+00:00	3.2%	26.0%	6.1%	16.6%	29.9%
2026-10-14T11:20:58+00:00	3.2%	15.1%	2.1%	16.6%	29.9%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	3.2%	15.1%	2.1%	16.6%	29.9%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	3.2%	15.1%	2.1%	16.6%	29.9%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	6.2%	15.1%	2.1%	16.6%	29.9%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	6.3%	15.1%	2.0%	16.6%	30.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2894
National Blend	36%	81.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1260
ICON	30%	80.4°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0906
IFS HRES	17%	77.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0276
IFS Ensemble	15%	80.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0228
AIFS Single	6%	75.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0040
WeatherNext 2	2%	75.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0004

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261019-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 84°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗