KSAT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

30%

30%

28%

25%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 32.3¢Risks 16.15u

WN2NO 67.7¢Risks 33.85u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +33.85u · WN2 −33.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	46.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	—	—	—	48.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	17.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	35.9%	—	—	53.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	34.2%	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	1.7%	10.2%	—	—	43.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	79.6%	59.1%	0.4%	—	45.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	33.0%	51.5%	18.4%	—	32.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	40.2%	12.9%	27.7%	—	20.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	28.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	31.6%	18.9%	18.9%	—	30.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	39.3%	17.8%	20.1%	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	8.8%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	35.4%	20.8%	24.8%	—	22.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	39.3%	28.7%	—	—	24.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	42.7%	34.7%	17.2%	—	28.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	36.1%	38.8%	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	39.4%	34.8%	26.3%	—	26.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	38.2%	25.7%	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	29.4%	13.4%	15.7%	0.0%	18.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	41.6%	22.8%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	35.1%	22.1%	23.0%	—	25.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	34.6%	29.6%	0.0%	—	21.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	33.1%	25.1%	24.2%	0.0%	18.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	39.3%	21.6%	27.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	37.7%	21.7%	18.2%	14.4%	22.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	41.0%	29.1%	15.8%	—	14.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	38.1%	31.9%	17.3%	8.4%	12.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	41.7%	25.3%	20.1%	—	15.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	44.2%	26.8%	20.2%	15.4%	16.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	26.0%	20.2%	—	8.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	82.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	82.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	81.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	28%	81.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	81.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261020-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 84°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗