KSAT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

30%

30%

28%

25%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 32.3¢Risks 16.15u

WN2NO 67.7¢Risks 33.85u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +33.85u · WN2 −33.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:30+00:00	31.5%	22.5%	18.4%	33.5%	62.8%
2026-10-15T04:48:03+00:00	31.5%	22.5%	18.4%	33.5%	62.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	31.5%	22.5%	19.6%	33.5%	62.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	31.5%	22.5%	19.6%	33.5%	62.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	31.5%	22.5%	19.6%	33.5%	62.8%
2026-10-15T07:50:14+00:00	22.2%	22.5%	19.6%	32.0%	51.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	22.2%	22.5%	19.6%	32.0%	51.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	22.2%	22.5%	19.6%	32.0%	51.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	22.2%	22.5%	19.6%	32.0%	51.3%
2026-10-15T10:53:41+00:00	22.2%	22.5%	9.9%	32.0%	51.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	22.2%	22.5%	9.9%	32.0%	51.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00	22.2%	51.7%	9.9%	32.0%	51.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00	22.2%	51.7%	9.9%	32.0%	51.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	50.8%	51.7%	9.9%	32.0%	52.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	50.8%	51.7%	9.9%	32.0%	52.0%
2026-10-16T04:24:52+00:00	41.2%	53.5%	20.4%	41.8%	59.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	41.2%	53.5%	17.1%	41.8%	59.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	41.2%	53.5%	17.1%	41.8%	59.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	41.2%	53.5%	17.1%	41.8%	59.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	36.4%	53.5%	17.1%	41.8%	50.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00	36.4%	53.5%	17.1%	41.8%	50.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	36.4%	53.5%	17.1%	41.8%	50.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	36.4%	53.5%	17.1%	41.8%	50.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	36.4%	53.5%	17.1%	41.8%	50.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00	36.4%	43.6%	18.0%	41.8%	50.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	36.4%	43.6%	18.0%	41.8%	50.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	36.4%	43.6%	18.0%	41.8%	50.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:50+00:00	37.2%	43.6%	18.0%	50.0%	50.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00	37.2%	43.6%	18.0%	50.0%	50.0%
2026-10-18T04:14:29+00:00	32.9%	39.1%	17.1%	29.6%	36.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	32.9%	39.1%	23.8%	29.6%	36.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	32.9%	39.1%	23.8%	29.6%	36.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	32.9%	39.1%	23.8%	29.6%	36.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	32.9%	39.1%	23.8%	29.6%	36.2%
2026-10-18T08:01:41+00:00	35.6%	39.1%	23.8%	42.3%	31.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	35.6%	39.1%	23.8%	42.3%	31.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	35.6%	39.1%	23.8%	42.3%	31.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	35.6%	39.1%	23.8%	42.3%	31.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	35.6%	42.5%	17.5%	42.3%	31.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00	35.6%	42.5%	17.5%	42.3%	31.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:51+00:00	35.6%	42.5%	17.5%	42.3%	31.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	35.6%	42.5%	17.5%	42.3%	31.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	32.0%	42.7%	17.5%	42.3%	31.6%
2026-10-19T04:31:19+00:00	34.7%	32.1%	15.9%	35.7%	30.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	34.7%	32.1%	29.2%	35.7%	30.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	34.7%	32.1%	29.2%	35.7%	30.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	34.7%	32.1%	29.2%	35.7%	30.7%
2026-10-19T07:33:34+00:00	35.2%	32.1%	29.2%	39.4%	25.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	35.2%	32.1%	29.2%	39.4%	25.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	35.2%	32.1%	29.2%	39.4%	25.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	35.2%	32.1%	29.2%	39.4%	25.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00	35.2%	32.1%	29.2%	39.4%	25.9%
2026-10-19T11:21:10+00:00	35.2%	32.7%	21.5%	39.4%	25.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	35.2%	32.7%	21.5%	39.4%	25.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	35.2%	32.7%	21.5%	39.4%	25.9%
2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00	32.4%	32.7%	21.5%	39.4%	25.9%
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00	32.3%	32.7%	21.5%	39.4%	26.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:49+00:00	32.3%	30.2%	21.5%	39.4%	26.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	32.3%	30.2%	21.5%	39.4%	26.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	32.3%	30.2%	21.5%	39.4%	26.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	32.3%	30.2%	18.6%	39.4%	26.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:40+00:00	32.3%	30.2%	18.6%	39.4%	26.7%
2026-10-19T19:00:12+00:00	32.3%	30.2%	18.6%	39.4%	26.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00	37.0%	30.2%	18.6%	29.5%	27.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	37.0%	30.2%	18.6%	29.5%	27.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	37.0%	30.2%	18.6%	29.5%	27.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	37.0%	30.2%	18.6%	29.5%	27.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	37.0%	30.2%	18.6%	29.5%	27.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	37.0%	30.2%	24.6%	29.5%	27.7%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	37.0%	30.2%	24.6%	29.5%	27.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	37.0%	30.2%	24.6%	29.5%	27.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	40.0%	30.2%	24.6%	29.5%	27.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	40.0%	30.2%	24.6%	29.5%	27.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	40.0%	30.2%	24.6%	29.5%	27.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	82.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	82.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	81.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	28%	81.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	81.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261020-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 84°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗