KSAT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

12%

11%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 6.0¢Risks 3.00u

EPSNO 94.0¢Risks 47.00u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +47.00u · EPS −47.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	—	—	—	20.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	9.6%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	8.3%	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	27.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.1%	1.1%	—	—	12.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	27.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	40.9%	20.4%	0.0%	—	11.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	6.2%	14.4%	2.3%	—	5.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	8.1%	1.1%	4.1%	—	2.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	4.7%	1.9%	1.9%	—	4.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	5.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	6.3%	1.5%	1.8%	—	4.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.4%	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	4.5%	1.7%	2.3%	—	1.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	5.2%	2.8%	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	5.8%	3.8%	1.0%	—	2.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	3.8%	4.4%	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	4.2%	3.2%	1.8%	—	1.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	3.5%	1.6%	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.8%	0.4%	0.5%	0.0%	0.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.5%	1.0%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.1%	0.8%	0.9%	—	1.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.8%	1.3%	0.0%	—	0.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.4%	0.8%	0.7%	0.0%	0.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.9%	0.5%	0.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.4%	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%	0.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.5%	0.6%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.0%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.1%	0.3%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.2%	0.1%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	12%	83.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	84.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
ICON	11%	83.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	82.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	80.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	83.1°F	2.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261020-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in San Antonio · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗