KSAT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

12%

11%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 6.0¢Risks 3.00u

EPSNO 94.0¢Risks 47.00u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +47.00u · EPS −47.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:04:06+00:00	1.9%	15.9%	3.5%	8.7%	7.9%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	1.9%	15.9%	3.5%	8.7%	7.9%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	1.9%	15.9%	3.5%	8.7%	7.9%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	1.9%	15.9%	3.5%	8.7%	7.9%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	1.9%	9.0%	1.0%	8.7%	7.9%
2026-10-13T11:50:41+00:00	1.9%	9.0%	1.0%	8.7%	7.9%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	1.9%	9.0%	1.0%	8.7%	7.9%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	1.9%	9.0%	1.0%	8.7%	7.9%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	6.5%	9.0%	1.0%	8.7%	7.9%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	6.5%	9.0%	1.0%	8.7%	7.9%
2026-10-13T15:41:50+00:00	6.5%	9.0%	1.0%	8.7%	7.9%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	6.5%	9.0%	1.0%	8.7%	7.9%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	6.5%	9.0%	2.6%	8.7%	7.9%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	6.5%	9.0%	2.6%	8.7%	7.9%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	6.5%	9.0%	2.6%	8.7%	7.9%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	8.8%	9.0%	2.6%	8.7%	62.6%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	8.8%	9.0%	2.6%	8.7%	62.6%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	8.8%	9.0%	2.6%	8.7%	62.6%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	8.8%	9.0%	2.6%	8.7%	62.6%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	8.8%	9.0%	2.6%	16.4%	62.6%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	8.8%	9.0%	2.8%	16.4%	62.6%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	8.8%	9.0%	2.8%	16.4%	62.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	8.8%	9.0%	2.8%	16.4%	62.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00	8.3%	9.0%	2.8%	16.4%	62.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	8.3%	9.0%	2.8%	16.4%	62.6%
2026-10-14T03:00:01+00:00	8.3%	9.0%	2.8%	16.4%	62.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:36+00:00	8.3%	9.0%	2.8%	16.4%	62.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	8.3%	9.0%	2.8%	16.4%	62.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	8.3%	9.0%	2.8%	16.4%	62.6%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	8.3%	9.0%	2.8%	16.4%	62.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	8.3%	9.0%	2.8%	16.4%	62.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	6.6%	9.0%	2.8%	16.4%	24.8%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	6.6%	9.0%	2.8%	16.4%	24.8%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	6.6%	9.0%	2.8%	16.4%	24.8%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	6.6%	9.0%	2.8%	16.4%	24.8%
2026-10-14T10:34:13+00:00	6.6%	9.0%	2.8%	12.3%	24.8%
2026-10-14T11:20:58+00:00	6.6%	0.4%	1.1%	12.3%	24.8%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	6.6%	0.4%	1.1%	12.3%	24.8%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	6.6%	0.4%	1.1%	12.3%	24.8%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	9.6%	0.4%	1.1%	12.3%	24.8%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	10.4%	0.4%	1.2%	12.4%	24.8%
2026-10-14T15:12:40+00:00	10.4%	0.3%	1.2%	12.4%	24.8%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	10.4%	0.3%	1.2%	12.4%	24.8%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	10.4%	0.3%	1.2%	12.4%	24.8%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	10.4%	0.3%	1.5%	12.4%	24.8%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	10.4%	0.3%	1.5%	12.4%	24.8%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	10.4%	0.3%	1.5%	12.4%	24.8%
2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00	5.5%	0.3%	1.5%	9.1%	30.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	5.5%	0.3%	1.5%	9.1%	30.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	5.5%	0.3%	1.5%	9.1%	30.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	5.5%	0.3%	1.5%	9.1%	30.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	5.5%	0.3%	1.5%	9.1%	30.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	5.5%	0.3%	1.4%	9.1%	30.0%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00	5.5%	0.3%	1.4%	9.1%	30.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	5.5%	0.3%	1.4%	9.1%	30.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	5.5%	0.3%	1.4%	9.1%	30.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	5.5%	0.3%	1.4%	9.1%	30.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	5.5%	0.3%	1.4%	9.1%	30.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00	5.5%	0.3%	1.4%	9.1%	30.0%
2026-10-15T04:48:03+00:00	5.5%	0.3%	1.4%	9.1%	30.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	5.5%	0.3%	1.6%	9.1%	30.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	5.5%	0.3%	1.6%	9.1%	30.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	5.5%	0.3%	1.6%	9.1%	30.0%
2026-10-15T07:50:14+00:00	2.4%	0.3%	1.6%	6.6%	16.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	2.4%	0.3%	1.6%	6.6%	16.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	2.4%	0.3%	1.6%	6.6%	16.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	2.4%	0.3%	1.6%	6.6%	16.4%
2026-10-15T10:53:41+00:00	2.4%	0.3%	0.3%	6.6%	16.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	2.4%	0.3%	0.3%	6.6%	16.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	11.8%	0.5%	0.3%	6.6%	17.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	11.8%	0.5%	0.3%	6.6%	17.1%
2026-10-15T15:34:34+00:00	11.8%	0.6%	0.3%	6.6%	17.1%
2026-10-15T16:20:11+00:00	11.8%	0.6%	0.3%	6.6%	17.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	11.8%	0.6%	0.6%	6.6%	17.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	11.8%	0.6%	0.6%	6.6%	17.1%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	11.8%	0.6%	0.6%	6.6%	17.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	11.8%	0.6%	0.6%	6.6%	17.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	4.6%	0.6%	0.6%	10.6%	22.1%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00	4.6%	0.6%	0.6%	10.6%	22.1%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	4.6%	0.6%	0.6%	10.6%	22.1%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	4.6%	0.6%	0.6%	10.6%	22.1%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	4.6%	0.6%	1.1%	10.6%	22.1%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	4.5%	0.6%	1.1%	10.6%	22.1%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	4.5%	0.6%	1.1%	10.6%	22.1%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	7.6%	0.6%	1.1%	10.6%	22.1%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	7.6%	0.6%	1.1%	10.6%	22.1%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	7.6%	0.6%	1.1%	10.6%	22.1%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	7.6%	0.6%	1.1%	10.6%	22.1%
2026-10-16T04:24:52+00:00	7.6%	0.6%	1.1%	10.6%	22.1%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	7.6%	0.6%	0.8%	10.6%	22.1%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	7.6%	0.6%	0.8%	10.6%	22.1%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	7.6%	0.6%	0.8%	10.6%	22.1%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	4.9%	0.6%	0.8%	10.6%	10.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00	4.9%	0.6%	0.8%	10.6%	10.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	4.9%	0.6%	0.8%	10.6%	10.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	4.9%	0.6%	0.8%	10.6%	10.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	4.9%	0.6%	0.8%	10.6%	10.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00	4.9%	0.5%	0.6%	10.6%	10.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	4.9%	0.5%	0.6%	10.6%	10.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	4.9%	0.5%	0.6%	10.6%	10.8%
2026-10-16T13:28:50+00:00	5.1%	0.5%	0.6%	11.5%	10.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00	5.1%	0.5%	0.6%	11.5%	10.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	12%	83.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	84.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
ICON	11%	83.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	82.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	80.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	83.1°F	2.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261020-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in San Antonio · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗