KSAT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

42%

40%

35%

18%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 32.0¢Risks 32.05u

WN2NO 68.0¢Risks 67.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +67.95u · WN2 −67.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	—	—	—	40.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	0.4%	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	34.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	35.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	17.6%	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	57.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	16.3%	2.6%	42.6%	—	—	36.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	20.9%	24.1%	0.2%	—	29.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	25.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	27.9%	42.7%	23.7%	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	14.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	8.4%	47.7%	8.1%	—	35.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	18.4%	34.5%	33.0%	—	28.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	26.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	36.1%	31.5%	35.3%	—	27.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	12.3%	34.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	36.3%	28.4%	26.2%	—	29.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	38.5%	6.6%	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	39.1%	25.9%	21.6%	—	26.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	48.1%	5.3%	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	35.7%	29.6%	25.5%	—	32.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	12.4%	38.2%	29.9%	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	39.8%	3.5%	24.3%	—	24.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	51.1%	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	50.0%	23.0%	25.5%	—	31.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	50.0%	42.2%	0.0%	—	20.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	50.0%	1.7%	27.0%	0.0%	22.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	53.6%	6.6%	26.3%	—	23.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	55.0%	37.7%	27.6%	5.2%	27.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	2.4%	29.1%	—	17.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	86.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	47%	85.2°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	85.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	42%	84.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	84.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	84.4°F	2.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	18%	82.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261021-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 86°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗