KSAT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

42%

40%

35%

18%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 32.0¢Risks 32.05u

WN2NO 68.0¢Risks 67.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +67.95u · WN2 −67.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:34+00:00	39.0%	26.0%	27.4%	17.0%	52.2%
2026-10-15T16:20:11+00:00	39.0%	26.0%	27.4%	17.0%	52.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	39.0%	26.0%	28.2%	17.0%	52.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	39.0%	26.0%	28.2%	17.0%	52.2%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	39.0%	26.0%	28.2%	17.0%	52.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	39.0%	26.0%	28.2%	17.0%	52.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	34.2%	26.0%	28.2%	46.4%	30.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00	34.2%	26.0%	28.2%	46.4%	30.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	34.2%	26.0%	28.2%	46.4%	30.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	34.2%	26.0%	28.2%	46.4%	30.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	34.2%	26.0%	30.4%	46.4%	30.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	34.2%	26.0%	30.4%	46.4%	30.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	34.2%	26.0%	30.4%	46.4%	30.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	39.0%	26.0%	30.4%	46.4%	30.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	39.0%	26.0%	30.4%	46.4%	30.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	39.0%	26.0%	30.4%	46.4%	30.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	39.0%	26.0%	30.4%	46.4%	30.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:42+00:00	38.9%	42.4%	21.1%	37.8%	38.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	38.9%	42.4%	21.1%	37.8%	38.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	38.9%	42.4%	21.1%	37.8%	38.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	38.9%	42.4%	21.8%	37.8%	38.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	38.9%	42.4%	21.8%	37.8%	38.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	38.9%	42.4%	21.8%	37.8%	38.2%
2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00	42.0%	42.4%	21.8%	37.8%	56.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	42.0%	42.4%	21.8%	37.8%	56.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	42.0%	42.4%	21.8%	37.8%	56.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	42.0%	42.4%	21.8%	37.8%	56.6%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	42.0%	42.4%	21.8%	10.6%	56.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	42.0%	42.4%	25.6%	10.6%	56.6%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	42.0%	42.4%	25.6%	10.6%	56.6%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	42.0%	42.4%	25.6%	10.6%	56.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	45.2%	42.4%	25.6%	10.6%	56.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	45.2%	42.4%	25.6%	10.6%	56.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	45.2%	42.4%	25.6%	10.6%	56.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	45.2%	42.4%	25.6%	10.6%	56.6%
2026-10-17T04:42:17+00:00	45.2%	42.4%	25.6%	10.6%	56.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	45.2%	42.4%	23.3%	10.6%	56.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	45.2%	42.4%	23.3%	10.6%	56.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	45.2%	42.4%	23.3%	10.6%	56.6%
2026-10-17T07:44:55+00:00	47.4%	42.4%	23.3%	12.3%	50.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	47.4%	42.4%	23.3%	12.3%	50.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	47.4%	42.4%	23.3%	12.3%	50.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	47.4%	42.4%	23.3%	12.3%	50.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	47.4%	42.4%	23.3%	12.3%	50.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	47.4%	53.2%	16.7%	12.3%	50.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	47.4%	53.2%	16.7%	12.3%	50.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	47.4%	53.2%	16.7%	12.3%	50.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	46.5%	53.2%	16.7%	12.3%	50.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	46.5%	53.2%	16.7%	12.3%	50.8%
2026-10-17T15:25:08+00:00	46.5%	42.9%	16.7%	12.3%	50.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	46.5%	42.9%	16.7%	12.3%	50.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	46.5%	42.9%	15.4%	12.3%	50.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	46.5%	42.9%	15.4%	12.3%	50.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	46.5%	42.9%	15.4%	12.3%	50.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	46.5%	42.9%	15.4%	12.3%	50.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	42.2%	42.9%	15.4%	41.3%	54.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	42.2%	42.9%	15.4%	41.3%	54.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	42.2%	42.9%	15.4%	41.3%	54.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	42.2%	42.9%	15.4%	41.3%	54.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	42.2%	42.9%	14.2%	41.3%	54.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	42.2%	42.9%	14.2%	41.3%	54.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	42.2%	42.9%	14.2%	41.3%	54.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	42.2%	42.9%	14.2%	41.3%	54.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	40.5%	42.9%	14.2%	41.3%	54.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	40.5%	42.9%	14.2%	41.3%	54.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	40.5%	42.9%	14.2%	41.3%	54.1%
2026-10-18T04:14:29+00:00	40.5%	42.9%	14.2%	41.3%	54.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	40.5%	42.9%	20.3%	41.3%	54.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	40.5%	42.9%	20.3%	41.3%	54.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	40.5%	42.9%	20.3%	41.3%	54.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	40.5%	42.9%	20.3%	41.3%	54.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:41+00:00	39.9%	42.9%	20.3%	45.5%	42.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	39.9%	42.9%	20.3%	45.5%	42.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	39.9%	42.9%	20.3%	45.5%	42.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	39.9%	42.9%	20.3%	45.5%	42.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	39.9%	46.9%	15.0%	45.5%	42.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00	39.9%	46.9%	15.0%	45.5%	42.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:51+00:00	39.9%	46.9%	15.0%	45.5%	42.0%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	39.9%	46.9%	15.0%	45.5%	42.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	39.8%	47.0%	15.0%	45.5%	42.1%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	39.8%	47.0%	15.0%	45.5%	42.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:33+00:00	39.8%	37.0%	15.0%	45.5%	42.1%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	39.8%	37.0%	15.0%	45.5%	42.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	39.8%	37.0%	13.6%	45.5%	42.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	39.8%	37.0%	13.6%	45.5%	42.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	39.8%	37.0%	13.6%	45.5%	42.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	40.7%	37.0%	13.6%	39.4%	47.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	40.7%	37.0%	13.6%	39.4%	47.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	40.7%	37.0%	13.6%	39.4%	47.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	40.7%	37.0%	13.6%	39.4%	47.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	40.7%	37.0%	13.6%	39.4%	47.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00	40.7%	37.0%	17.9%	39.4%	47.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	40.7%	37.0%	17.9%	39.4%	47.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	40.7%	37.0%	17.9%	39.4%	47.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	41.7%	37.0%	17.9%	39.4%	47.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	41.7%	37.0%	17.9%	39.4%	47.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	41.7%	37.0%	17.9%	39.4%	47.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	41.7%	37.0%	17.9%	39.4%	47.0%
2026-10-19T04:31:19+00:00	41.7%	37.0%	17.9%	39.4%	47.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	41.7%	37.0%	29.7%	39.4%	47.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	41.7%	37.0%	29.7%	39.4%	47.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	41.7%	37.0%	29.7%	39.4%	47.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:34+00:00	47.1%	37.0%	29.7%	48.1%	46.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	47.1%	37.0%	29.7%	48.1%	46.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	47.1%	37.0%	29.7%	48.1%	46.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	47.1%	37.0%	29.7%	48.1%	46.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00	47.1%	37.0%	29.7%	48.1%	46.6%
2026-10-19T11:21:10+00:00	47.1%	37.4%	21.9%	48.1%	46.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	47.1%	37.4%	21.9%	48.1%	46.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	47.1%	37.4%	21.9%	48.1%	46.6%
2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00	41.2%	37.4%	21.9%	48.1%	46.6%
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00	41.2%	37.4%	21.9%	48.1%	46.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:49+00:00	41.2%	34.7%	21.9%	48.1%	46.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	41.2%	34.7%	21.9%	48.1%	46.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	41.2%	34.7%	21.9%	48.1%	46.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	41.2%	34.7%	19.2%	48.1%	46.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:40+00:00	41.2%	34.7%	19.2%	48.1%	46.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:12+00:00	41.2%	34.7%	19.2%	48.1%	46.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00	41.2%	34.7%	19.2%	40.4%	46.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	41.2%	34.7%	19.2%	40.4%	46.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	41.2%	34.7%	19.2%	40.4%	46.6%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	41.2%	34.7%	19.2%	40.4%	46.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	41.2%	34.7%	19.2%	40.4%	46.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	41.2%	34.7%	17.5%	40.4%	46.6%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	41.2%	34.7%	17.5%	40.4%	46.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	41.2%	34.7%	17.5%	40.4%	46.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	42.2%	34.7%	17.5%	40.4%	46.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	42.2%	34.7%	17.5%	40.4%	46.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	42.2%	34.7%	17.5%	40.4%	46.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	86.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	47%	85.2°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	85.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	42%	84.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	84.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	84.4°F	2.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	18%	82.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261021-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 86°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗