KSAT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

31%

31%

26%

15%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 23.4¢Risks 11.72u

WN2NO 76.6¢Risks 38.28u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +38.28u · WN2 −38.28u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	—	40.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	0.2%	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	28.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	43.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	13.7%	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	51.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	1.7%	36.1%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	33.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	16.2%	18.9%	0.1%	—	23.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	22.1%	35.7%	18.4%	—	26.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	5.8%	40.2%	5.6%	—	28.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	34.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	13.6%	27.4%	26.1%	—	22.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	28.6%	24.5%	27.9%	—	21.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	8.5%	26.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	28.4%	21.4%	19.6%	—	22.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	30.2%	4.1%	—	—	21.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	30.6%	19.0%	15.4%	—	19.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	38.8%	3.2%	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	27.1%	21.8%	18.3%	—	24.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	29.1%	21.9%	—	—	17.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	30.3%	1.9%	17.0%	—	17.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	40.6%	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	39.2%	15.5%	17.6%	—	22.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	38.9%	31.5%	0.0%	—	13.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	38.5%	0.8%	18.3%	0.0%	14.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	41.6%	3.5%	17.5%	—	15.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	42.6%	26.6%	18.2%	2.6%	18.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	1.1%	19.1%	—	10.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	87.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	86.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	32%	83.7°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	83.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	31%	84.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	85.2°F	2.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	15%	82.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261021-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 87°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗