KSAT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

31%

31%

26%

15%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 23.4¢Risks 11.72u

WN2NO 76.6¢Risks 38.28u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +38.28u · WN2 −38.28u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:34:14+00:00	33.5%	39.8%	29.5%	34.1%	21.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:58+00:00	33.5%	22.7%	21.1%	34.1%	21.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	33.5%	22.7%	21.1%	34.1%	21.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	33.5%	22.7%	21.1%	34.1%	21.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	33.5%	22.7%	21.1%	34.1%	21.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	33.5%	22.7%	21.2%	34.1%	21.3%
2026-10-14T15:12:40+00:00	33.5%	22.7%	21.2%	34.1%	21.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	33.5%	22.7%	21.2%	34.1%	21.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	33.5%	22.7%	21.2%	34.1%	21.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	33.5%	22.7%	19.5%	34.1%	21.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	33.5%	22.7%	19.5%	34.1%	21.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	33.5%	22.7%	19.5%	34.1%	21.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00	32.2%	22.7%	19.5%	31.2%	46.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	32.2%	22.7%	19.5%	31.2%	46.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	32.2%	22.7%	19.5%	31.2%	46.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	32.2%	22.7%	19.5%	31.2%	46.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	32.2%	22.7%	19.5%	31.2%	46.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	32.2%	22.7%	20.1%	31.2%	46.0%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00	32.2%	22.7%	20.1%	31.2%	46.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	32.2%	22.7%	20.1%	31.2%	46.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	26.7%	22.7%	20.1%	31.2%	46.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	26.7%	22.7%	20.1%	31.2%	46.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	26.7%	22.7%	20.1%	31.2%	46.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00	26.7%	22.7%	20.1%	31.2%	46.0%
2026-10-15T04:48:03+00:00	26.7%	22.7%	20.1%	31.2%	46.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	26.7%	22.7%	22.4%	31.2%	46.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	26.7%	22.7%	22.4%	31.2%	46.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	26.7%	22.7%	22.4%	31.2%	46.0%
2026-10-15T07:50:14+00:00	32.1%	22.7%	22.4%	13.4%	46.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	32.1%	22.7%	22.4%	13.4%	46.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	32.1%	22.7%	22.4%	13.4%	46.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	32.1%	22.7%	22.4%	13.4%	46.6%
2026-10-15T10:53:41+00:00	32.1%	22.7%	20.8%	13.4%	46.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	32.1%	22.7%	20.8%	13.4%	46.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00	32.1%	14.5%	20.8%	13.4%	46.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00	32.1%	14.5%	20.8%	13.4%	46.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	32.1%	14.5%	20.8%	13.4%	46.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	32.1%	14.5%	20.8%	13.4%	46.6%
2026-10-16T04:24:52+00:00	32.1%	15.3%	23.3%	40.4%	25.9%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	32.1%	15.3%	20.2%	40.4%	25.9%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	32.1%	15.3%	20.2%	40.4%	25.9%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	32.1%	15.3%	20.2%	40.4%	25.9%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	32.9%	15.3%	20.2%	40.4%	32.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00	32.9%	15.3%	20.2%	40.4%	32.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	32.9%	15.3%	20.2%	40.4%	32.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	32.9%	15.3%	20.2%	40.4%	32.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	32.9%	15.3%	20.2%	40.4%	32.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00	32.9%	25.8%	14.8%	40.4%	32.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	32.9%	25.8%	14.8%	40.4%	32.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	32.9%	25.8%	14.8%	40.4%	32.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:50+00:00	31.4%	25.8%	14.8%	31.4%	32.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00	31.4%	25.8%	14.8%	31.4%	32.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	87.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	86.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	32%	83.7°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	83.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	31%	84.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	85.2°F	2.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	15%	82.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261021-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 87°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗