KSAT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

19%

17%

14%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 11.3¢Risks 5.67u

WN2NO 88.6¢Risks 44.32u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +44.32u · WN2 −44.32u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:34:14+00:00	21.7%	18.3%	18.2%	23.4%	15.7%
2026-10-14T11:20:58+00:00	21.7%	8.5%	11.4%	23.4%	15.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	21.7%	8.5%	11.4%	23.4%	15.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	21.7%	8.5%	11.4%	23.4%	15.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	21.7%	8.5%	11.4%	23.4%	15.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	21.7%	8.5%	11.6%	23.4%	16.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:40+00:00	21.7%	8.5%	11.6%	23.4%	16.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	21.7%	8.5%	11.6%	23.4%	16.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	21.7%	8.5%	11.6%	23.4%	16.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	21.7%	8.5%	10.4%	23.4%	16.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	21.7%	8.5%	10.4%	23.4%	16.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	21.7%	8.5%	10.4%	23.4%	16.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00	20.7%	8.5%	10.4%	21.1%	38.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	20.7%	8.5%	10.4%	21.1%	38.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	20.7%	8.5%	10.4%	21.1%	38.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	20.7%	8.5%	10.4%	21.1%	38.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	20.7%	8.5%	10.4%	21.1%	38.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	20.7%	8.5%	10.8%	21.1%	38.1%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00	20.7%	8.5%	10.8%	21.1%	38.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	20.7%	8.5%	10.8%	21.1%	38.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	16.4%	8.5%	10.8%	21.1%	38.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	16.4%	8.5%	10.8%	21.1%	38.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	16.4%	8.5%	10.8%	21.1%	38.1%
2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00	16.4%	8.5%	10.8%	21.1%	38.1%
2026-10-15T04:48:03+00:00	16.4%	8.5%	10.8%	21.1%	38.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	16.4%	8.5%	12.3%	21.1%	38.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	16.4%	8.5%	12.3%	21.1%	38.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	16.4%	8.5%	12.3%	21.1%	38.1%
2026-10-15T07:50:14+00:00	20.2%	8.5%	12.3%	7.9%	35.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	20.2%	8.5%	12.3%	7.9%	35.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	20.2%	8.5%	12.3%	7.9%	35.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00	20.2%	8.5%	12.3%	7.9%	35.6%
2026-10-15T10:53:41+00:00	20.2%	8.5%	10.7%	7.9%	35.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	20.2%	8.5%	10.7%	7.9%	35.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00	20.2%	3.5%	10.7%	7.9%	35.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00	20.2%	3.5%	10.7%	7.9%	35.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	20.2%	3.5%	10.7%	7.9%	35.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	20.2%	3.5%	10.7%	7.9%	35.7%
2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00	20.2%	3.8%	10.7%	7.9%	35.7%
2026-10-15T16:20:11+00:00	20.2%	3.8%	10.7%	7.9%	35.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	20.2%	3.8%	11.1%	7.9%	35.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	20.2%	3.8%	11.1%	7.9%	35.7%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	20.2%	3.8%	11.1%	7.9%	35.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	20.2%	3.8%	11.1%	7.9%	35.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	16.7%	3.8%	11.1%	29.3%	17.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00	16.7%	3.8%	11.1%	29.3%	17.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	16.7%	3.8%	11.1%	29.3%	17.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	16.7%	3.8%	11.1%	29.3%	17.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	16.7%	3.8%	12.4%	29.3%	17.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	16.7%	3.8%	12.4%	29.3%	17.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	16.7%	3.8%	12.4%	29.3%	17.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	20.2%	3.8%	12.4%	29.3%	17.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	20.2%	3.8%	12.4%	29.3%	17.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	20.2%	3.8%	12.4%	29.3%	17.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	20.2%	3.8%	12.4%	29.3%	17.7%
2026-10-16T04:24:52+00:00	20.2%	3.8%	12.4%	29.3%	17.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	20.2%	3.8%	10.3%	29.3%	17.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	20.2%	3.8%	10.3%	29.3%	17.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	20.2%	3.8%	10.3%	29.3%	17.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	19.9%	3.8%	10.3%	29.3%	21.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00	19.9%	3.8%	10.3%	29.3%	21.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	19.9%	3.8%	10.3%	29.3%	21.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	19.9%	3.8%	10.3%	29.3%	21.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	19.9%	3.8%	10.3%	29.3%	21.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00	19.9%	4.9%	6.3%	29.3%	21.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	19.9%	4.9%	6.3%	29.3%	21.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	19.9%	4.9%	6.3%	29.3%	21.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:50+00:00	18.8%	4.9%	6.3%	20.3%	21.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00	18.8%	4.9%	6.3%	20.3%	21.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:42+00:00	18.8%	5.3%	6.3%	20.3%	21.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	18.8%	5.3%	6.3%	20.3%	21.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	18.8%	5.3%	6.3%	20.3%	21.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	18.8%	5.3%	6.6%	20.3%	21.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	18.8%	5.3%	6.6%	20.3%	21.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	18.8%	5.3%	6.6%	20.3%	21.2%
2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00	21.0%	5.3%	6.6%	20.3%	37.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	21.0%	5.3%	6.6%	20.3%	37.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	21.0%	5.3%	6.6%	20.3%	37.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	21.0%	5.3%	6.6%	20.3%	37.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	21.0%	5.3%	6.6%	3.9%	37.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	21.0%	5.3%	8.3%	3.9%	37.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	21.0%	5.3%	8.3%	3.9%	37.0%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	21.0%	5.3%	8.3%	3.9%	37.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	23.4%	5.3%	8.3%	3.9%	37.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	23.4%	5.3%	8.3%	3.9%	37.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	23.4%	5.3%	8.3%	3.9%	37.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	23.4%	5.3%	8.3%	3.9%	37.0%
2026-10-17T04:42:17+00:00	23.4%	5.3%	8.3%	3.9%	37.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	23.4%	5.3%	7.2%	3.9%	37.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	23.4%	5.3%	7.2%	3.9%	37.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	23.4%	5.3%	7.2%	3.9%	37.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:55+00:00	23.6%	5.3%	7.2%	3.9%	27.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	23.6%	5.3%	7.2%	3.9%	27.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	23.6%	5.3%	7.2%	3.9%	27.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	23.6%	5.3%	7.2%	3.9%	27.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	23.6%	5.3%	7.2%	3.9%	27.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	23.6%	13.1%	3.8%	3.9%	27.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	23.6%	13.1%	3.8%	3.9%	27.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	23.6%	13.1%	3.8%	3.9%	27.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	22.9%	13.1%	3.8%	3.9%	27.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	22.9%	13.1%	3.8%	3.9%	27.6%
2026-10-17T15:25:08+00:00	22.9%	10.6%	3.8%	3.9%	27.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	22.9%	10.6%	3.8%	3.9%	27.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	22.9%	10.6%	3.4%	3.9%	27.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	22.9%	10.6%	3.4%	3.9%	27.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	22.9%	10.6%	3.4%	3.9%	27.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	22.9%	10.6%	3.4%	3.9%	27.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	19.8%	10.6%	3.4%	20.6%	30.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	19.8%	10.6%	3.4%	20.6%	30.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	19.8%	10.6%	3.4%	20.6%	30.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	19.8%	10.6%	3.4%	20.6%	30.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	19.8%	10.6%	3.0%	20.6%	30.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	19.8%	10.6%	3.0%	20.6%	30.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	19.8%	10.6%	3.0%	20.6%	30.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	19.8%	10.6%	3.0%	20.6%	30.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	18.6%	10.6%	3.0%	20.6%	30.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	18.6%	10.6%	3.0%	20.6%	30.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	18.6%	10.6%	3.0%	20.6%	30.4%
2026-10-18T04:14:29+00:00	18.6%	10.6%	3.0%	20.6%	30.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	18.6%	10.6%	5.1%	20.6%	30.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	18.6%	10.6%	5.1%	20.6%	30.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	18.6%	10.6%	5.1%	20.6%	30.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	18.6%	10.6%	5.1%	20.6%	30.4%
2026-10-18T08:01:41+00:00	16.9%	10.6%	5.1%	21.7%	16.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	16.9%	10.6%	5.1%	21.7%	16.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	16.9%	10.6%	5.1%	21.7%	16.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	16.9%	10.6%	5.1%	21.7%	16.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	16.9%	11.0%	2.7%	21.7%	16.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00	16.9%	11.0%	2.7%	21.7%	16.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:51+00:00	16.9%	11.0%	2.7%	21.7%	16.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	16.9%	11.0%	2.7%	21.7%	16.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	16.8%	11.8%	2.7%	21.6%	17.0%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	16.8%	11.8%	2.7%	21.6%	17.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:33+00:00	16.8%	7.6%	2.7%	21.6%	17.0%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	16.8%	7.6%	2.7%	21.6%	17.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	16.8%	7.6%	2.3%	21.6%	17.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	16.8%	7.6%	2.3%	21.6%	17.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	16.8%	7.6%	2.3%	21.6%	17.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	17.4%	7.6%	2.3%	17.3%	20.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	17.4%	7.6%	2.3%	17.3%	20.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	17.4%	7.6%	2.3%	17.3%	20.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	17.4%	7.6%	2.3%	17.3%	20.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	17.4%	7.6%	2.3%	17.3%	20.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00	17.4%	7.6%	3.5%	17.3%	20.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	17.4%	7.6%	3.5%	17.3%	20.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	17.4%	7.6%	3.5%	17.3%	20.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	18.1%	7.6%	3.5%	17.3%	20.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	18.1%	7.6%	3.5%	17.3%	20.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	18.1%	7.6%	3.5%	17.3%	20.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	18.1%	7.6%	3.5%	17.3%	20.4%
2026-10-19T04:31:19+00:00	18.1%	7.6%	3.5%	17.3%	20.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	18.1%	7.6%	7.7%	17.3%	20.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	18.1%	7.6%	7.7%	17.3%	20.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	18.1%	7.6%	7.7%	17.3%	20.4%
2026-10-19T07:33:34+00:00	20.8%	7.6%	7.7%	21.8%	17.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	20.8%	7.6%	7.7%	21.8%	17.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	20.8%	7.6%	7.7%	21.8%	17.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	20.8%	7.6%	7.7%	21.8%	17.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00	20.8%	7.6%	7.7%	21.8%	17.7%
2026-10-19T11:21:10+00:00	20.8%	8.2%	4.1%	21.8%	17.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	20.8%	8.2%	4.1%	21.8%	17.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	20.8%	8.2%	4.1%	21.8%	17.7%
2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00	16.8%	8.2%	4.1%	21.8%	17.7%
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00	16.7%	8.2%	4.1%	21.8%	17.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:49+00:00	16.7%	7.2%	4.1%	21.8%	17.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	16.7%	7.2%	4.1%	21.8%	17.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	16.7%	7.2%	4.1%	21.8%	17.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	16.7%	7.2%	3.3%	21.8%	17.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:40+00:00	16.7%	7.2%	3.3%	21.8%	17.7%
2026-10-19T19:00:12+00:00	16.7%	7.2%	3.3%	21.8%	17.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00	16.7%	7.2%	3.3%	16.5%	17.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	16.7%	7.2%	3.3%	16.5%	17.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	16.7%	7.2%	3.3%	16.5%	17.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	16.7%	7.2%	3.3%	16.5%	17.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	16.7%	7.2%	3.3%	16.5%	17.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	16.7%	7.2%	2.9%	16.5%	17.7%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	16.7%	7.2%	2.9%	16.5%	17.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	16.7%	7.2%	2.9%	16.5%	17.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	17.3%	7.2%	2.9%	16.5%	17.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	17.3%	7.2%	2.9%	16.5%	17.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	17.3%	7.2%	2.9%	16.5%	17.7%
2026-10-20T04:05:18+00:00	17.3%	7.2%	2.9%	16.5%	17.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	17.3%	7.2%	2.9%	16.5%	17.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00	17.3%	7.2%	6.9%	16.5%	17.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	17.3%	7.2%	6.9%	16.5%	17.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	17.3%	7.2%	6.9%	16.5%	17.7%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00	17.3%	7.2%	6.9%	16.5%	14.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	17.3%	7.2%	6.9%	16.5%	14.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	17.3%	7.2%	6.9%	16.5%	14.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	17.3%	7.2%	6.9%	16.5%	14.2%
2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00	17.3%	7.4%	4.0%	18.7%	14.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	17.3%	7.4%	4.0%	18.7%	14.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	17.3%	7.4%	4.0%	18.7%	14.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	17.3%	7.4%	4.0%	18.7%	14.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	19%	85.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	17%	84.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	14%	84.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	7%	84.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	83.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261021-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio runs hot-for-here: 89°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗