KSAT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

19%

17%

14%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 11.3¢Risks 5.67u

WN2NO 88.6¢Risks 44.32u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +44.32u · WN2 −44.32u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	25.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	30.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	29.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	19.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	31.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	7.8%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	0.7%	24.4%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	9.0%	10.9%	0.0%	—	14.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	12.8%	23.2%	10.3%	—	16.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	2.5%	26.4%	2.4%	—	17.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	6.7%	15.9%	14.9%	—	12.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	16.2%	13.4%	15.7%	—	11.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	3.6%	14.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	15.6%	10.9%	9.7%	—	11.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	16.6%	1.4%	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	16.6%	9.0%	7.0%	—	9.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	22.4%	1.0%	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	13.6%	10.2%	8.2%	—	11.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	14.6%	10.0%	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	15.1%	0.5%	7.1%	—	7.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	22.0%	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	20.6%	5.9%	7.0%	—	9.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	19.8%	14.8%	0.0%	—	4.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	19.1%	0.1%	6.8%	0.0%	5.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	20.8%	0.8%	6.2%	—	5.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	20.8%	10.6%	6.3%	0.5%	6.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	0.2%	6.4%	—	2.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	19%	85.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	17%	84.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	14%	84.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	7%	84.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	83.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261021-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio runs hot-for-here: 89°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗