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KSAT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
12%
AIFS
9%
ICON
9%
EPS
4%
WN2
2%
Consensus
3%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 6.9¢Risks 3.45u
VS
WN2NO 93.1¢Risks 46.55u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.55u · WN2 −46.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.2% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.7% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.1% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.2% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.8% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.4% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 15.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.9% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.2% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.8% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.6% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 32.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.6% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.3% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.3% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 10.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 11.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.8% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.6% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.2% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.1% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.3% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.8% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.4% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.9% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.7% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.7% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-06 12:0010-13 12:0010-20 12:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:000.1%————0.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:006.9%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:003.4%————6.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0012.6%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:001.5%————6.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:004.0%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:008.3%————5.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0015.2%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:006.3%————8.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:003.4%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:002.6%————10.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:003.9%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:003.6%————17.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0013.7%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:008.7%————20.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:008.7%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0020.7%————21.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0018.1%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0013.5%————25.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:008.7%—0.9%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0017.0%————20.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0027.2%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0033.5%—0.1%——24.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0013.8%—15.8%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0011.2%————16.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0015.4%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0012.8%————14.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0011.2%—25.6%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0015.2%—5.7%——15.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:006.3%—32.1%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:004.8%0.4%19.4%——15.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:004.7%—17.5%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:004.5%6.5%7.9%0.0%—10.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:002.8%—8.6%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:004.2%9.3%17.9%7.4%—12.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:003.5%—3.6%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:002.9%1.6%20.5%1.5%—12.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:003.3%—16.4%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:003.8%4.5%11.5%10.8%—8.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:003.3%—7.3%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:003.6%11.6%9.3%11.2%—7.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:003.9%2.2%10.3%——0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:004.1%10.9%7.3%6.5%—8.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:003.6%11.6%0.8%——7.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:002.5%11.5%5.8%4.3%—6.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:001.9%15.9%0.5%——4.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:001.8%9.0%6.5%5.1%—7.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:001.6%9.6%6.3%——4.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:001.4%9.8%0.2%4.2%—4.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:001.3%15.0%0.5%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:001.7%13.7%3.3%4.0%—5.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.9%12.9%9.2%0.0%—2.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.8%12.1%0.1%3.8%0.0%2.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.6%13.2%0.3%3.3%—2.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:000.6%13.0%5.9%3.3%0.2%3.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.2%—0.1%3.2%—1.3%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00——1.1%—0.0%—
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast13%86.0°F3.1°F2026-10-20 14:00Pending
IFS HRES12%85.2°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single9%84.2°F3.9°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON9%84.7°F3.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble4%84.4°F2.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend2%84.0°F2.8°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%83.2°F2.9°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261021-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in San Antonio · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗