KSAT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 21 · 15:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

72%

64%

62%

54%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 63.7¢Risks 31.85u

WN2NO 36.3¢Risks 18.15u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +18.15u · WN2 −18.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	53.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	58.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	51.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	76.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	73.6%	—	—	56.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	64.0%	—	—	52.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	48.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	0.1%	38.7%	—	—	59.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	53.5%	38.2%	1.1%	—	59.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	75.7%	55.1%	50.0%	—	57.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	69.7%	44.7%	42.4%	—	56.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.2%	71.9%	44.4%	50.0%	—	63.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	40.3%	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	72.1%	45.8%	45.8%	—	56.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	45.7%	49.1%	—	—	52.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	26.2%	65.4%	49.1%	42.2%	—	54.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	58.0%	61.5%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	63.6%	61.8%	38.2%	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	73.9%	60.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	67.8%	62.4%	44.2%	—	56.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	60.9%	66.5%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	22.7%	65.1%	63.1%	39.8%	—	50.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	21.3%	73.0%	67.4%	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	75.3%	69.9%	45.6%	30.1%	56.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	51.1%	0.1%	—	52.2%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	81.0%	57.0%	60.4%	—	51.2%
2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	84.0%	74.7%	65.3%	—	56.0%
2026-10-21T00:00:00+00:00	22.7%	84.1%	27.6%	57.4%	41.3%	62.3%
2026-10-21T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	84.2%	57.7%	57.7%	—	—
2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	60.6%	—	51.3%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	73%	85.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
ICON	72%	85.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	84.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	62%	84.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
National Blend	60%	84.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-21 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-21 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	83.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261022-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 84°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗