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KSAT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
74%
EPS
70%
HRES
68%
AIFS
61%
WN2
51%
Consensus
66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 62.7¢Risks 62.70u
VS
WN2NO 37.3¢Risks 37.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +37.30u · WN2 −37.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T04:05:18+00:00AIFS Single: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00AIFS Single: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00AIFS Single: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00AIFS Single: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00AIFS Single: 60.7% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00AIFS Single: 60.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00AIFS Single: 60.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00AIFS Single: 60.7% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00AIFS Single: 60.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 60.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 60.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00AIFS Single: 60.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00AIFS Single: 60.7% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.1% · 2026-10-20T04:05:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.1% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.8% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.8% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.3% · 2026-10-20T04:05:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.4% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.3% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.3% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.3% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00IFS HRES: 63.2% · 2026-10-20T04:05:18+00:00IFS HRES: 63.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00IFS HRES: 63.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00IFS HRES: 63.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS HRES: 63.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS HRES: 63.2% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00IFS HRES: 63.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS HRES: 63.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS HRES: 63.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS HRES: 67.8% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00IFS HRES: 67.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 67.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 67.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS HRES: 67.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00IFS HRES: 67.8% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00ICON: 70.9% · 2026-10-20T04:05:18+00:00ICON: 70.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00ICON: 70.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00ICON: 70.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00ICON: 70.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00ICON: 73.2% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00ICON: 73.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00ICON: 73.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00ICON: 73.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00ICON: 73.2% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00ICON: 73.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 73.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00ICON: 73.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00ICON: 74.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00ICON: 74.1% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:0010-20 04:0510-20 09:2210-20 14:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:05:18+00:0055.6%73.1%38.3%63.2%70.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:0055.6%73.1%38.3%63.2%70.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:0055.6%73.1%52.4%63.2%70.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:0055.6%73.1%52.4%63.2%70.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:0055.6%73.1%52.4%63.2%70.9%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:0060.7%73.1%52.4%63.2%73.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:0060.7%73.1%52.4%63.2%73.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:0060.7%73.1%52.4%63.2%73.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:0060.7%73.1%52.4%63.2%73.2%
2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:0060.7%69.8%51.3%67.8%73.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:0060.7%69.8%51.3%67.8%73.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:0060.7%69.8%51.3%67.8%73.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:0060.7%69.8%51.3%67.8%73.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:0060.7%69.8%51.3%67.8%74.1%
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:0060.7%69.8%51.3%67.8%74.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON74%85.8°F3.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble70%84.9°F2.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES68%85.4°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single61%84.6°F4.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend56%84.0°F3.2°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
NWS forecast56%84.0°F3.4°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
WeatherNext 251%83.6°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261022-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 84°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗