KSAT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

37%

29%

27%

12%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 26.9¢Risks 26.90u

WN2NO 73.1¢Risks 73.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +73.10u · WN2 −73.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	41.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	59.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	56.3%	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	44.8%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	0.0%	21.3%	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	27.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	33.0%	20.4%	0.2%	—	38.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	55.8%	33.7%	29.1%	—	35.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	29.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	47.7%	23.9%	22.2%	—	34.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	49.2%	23.0%	27.4%	—	39.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	19.5%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	48.3%	23.2%	23.2%	—	32.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	22.6%	25.3%	—	—	28.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	39.6%	24.8%	19.6%	—	29.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	31.8%	35.1%	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	36.4%	34.7%	16.0%	—	24.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	47.2%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	39.4%	33.9%	19.0%	—	28.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	31.7%	37.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	34.9%	33.0%	15.1%	—	21.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	42.6%	36.5%	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	44.5%	38.2%	17.6%	9.0%	25.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	20.6%	0.0%	—	21.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	87.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	42%	85.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	85.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	29%	84.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	85.0°F	2.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	82.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261022-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 87°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗