KSAT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

37%

29%

27%

12%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 26.9¢Risks 26.90u

WN2NO 73.1¢Risks 73.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +73.10u · WN2 −73.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T10:53:41+00:00	41.5%	43.8%	28.8%	49.4%	4.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	41.5%	43.8%	28.8%	49.4%	4.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00	41.5%	35.4%	28.8%	49.4%	4.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00	41.5%	35.4%	28.8%	49.4%	4.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	44.4%	35.4%	29.1%	49.4%	4.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	44.4%	35.4%	29.1%	49.4%	4.3%
2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00	44.4%	37.4%	29.1%	49.4%	4.3%
2026-10-15T16:20:11+00:00	44.4%	37.4%	29.1%	49.4%	4.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	44.4%	37.4%	30.4%	49.4%	4.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	44.4%	37.4%	30.4%	49.4%	4.3%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	44.4%	37.4%	30.4%	49.4%	4.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	44.4%	37.4%	30.4%	49.4%	4.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	32.4%	37.4%	30.4%	52.5%	58.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00	32.4%	37.4%	30.4%	52.5%	58.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	32.4%	37.4%	30.4%	52.5%	58.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	32.4%	37.4%	30.4%	52.5%	58.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	32.4%	37.4%	31.1%	52.5%	58.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	32.4%	37.4%	31.1%	52.5%	58.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	32.4%	37.4%	31.1%	52.5%	58.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	35.0%	37.4%	31.1%	52.5%	58.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	35.0%	37.4%	31.1%	52.5%	58.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	35.0%	37.4%	31.1%	52.5%	58.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	35.0%	37.4%	31.1%	52.5%	58.4%
2026-10-17T15:25:08+00:00	35.8%	50.0%	23.3%	47.9%	66.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	35.8%	50.0%	23.3%	47.9%	66.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	35.8%	50.0%	22.5%	47.9%	66.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	35.8%	50.0%	22.5%	47.9%	66.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	35.8%	50.0%	22.5%	47.9%	66.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	35.8%	50.0%	22.5%	47.9%	66.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	35.1%	50.0%	22.5%	41.8%	65.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	35.1%	50.0%	22.5%	41.8%	65.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	35.1%	50.0%	22.5%	41.8%	65.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	35.1%	50.0%	22.5%	41.8%	65.9%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	35.1%	50.0%	21.8%	41.8%	65.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	35.1%	50.0%	21.8%	41.8%	65.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	35.1%	50.0%	21.8%	41.8%	65.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	35.1%	50.0%	21.8%	41.8%	65.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	34.3%	50.0%	21.8%	41.8%	65.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	34.3%	50.0%	21.8%	41.8%	65.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	34.3%	50.0%	21.8%	41.8%	65.9%
2026-10-18T04:14:29+00:00	34.3%	50.0%	21.8%	41.8%	65.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	34.3%	50.0%	24.0%	41.8%	65.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	34.3%	50.0%	24.0%	41.8%	65.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	34.3%	50.0%	24.0%	41.8%	65.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	34.3%	50.0%	24.0%	41.8%	65.9%
2026-10-18T08:01:41+00:00	30.1%	50.0%	24.0%	38.2%	54.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	30.1%	50.0%	24.0%	38.2%	54.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	30.1%	50.0%	24.0%	38.2%	54.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	30.1%	50.0%	24.0%	38.2%	54.1%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	30.1%	36.9%	16.1%	38.2%	54.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00	30.1%	36.9%	16.1%	38.2%	54.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:51+00:00	30.1%	36.9%	16.1%	38.2%	54.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	30.1%	36.9%	16.1%	38.2%	54.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	32.4%	36.9%	16.1%	38.2%	54.1%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	32.4%	36.9%	16.1%	38.2%	54.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:33+00:00	32.4%	27.4%	16.1%	38.2%	54.1%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	32.4%	27.4%	16.1%	38.2%	54.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	32.4%	27.4%	17.4%	38.2%	54.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	32.4%	27.4%	17.4%	38.2%	54.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	32.4%	27.4%	17.4%	38.2%	54.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	32.4%	27.4%	17.4%	40.5%	51.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	32.4%	27.4%	17.4%	40.5%	51.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	32.4%	27.4%	17.4%	40.5%	51.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	32.4%	27.4%	17.4%	40.5%	51.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	32.4%	27.4%	17.4%	40.5%	51.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00	32.4%	27.4%	18.1%	40.5%	51.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	32.4%	27.4%	18.1%	40.5%	51.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	32.4%	27.4%	18.1%	40.5%	51.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	32.4%	27.4%	18.1%	40.5%	51.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	32.4%	27.4%	18.1%	40.5%	51.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	32.4%	27.4%	18.1%	40.5%	51.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	32.4%	27.4%	18.1%	40.5%	51.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:49+00:00	27.9%	26.9%	16.3%	41.1%	46.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	27.9%	26.9%	16.3%	41.1%	46.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	27.9%	26.9%	16.3%	41.1%	46.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	27.9%	26.9%	12.9%	41.1%	46.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:40+00:00	27.9%	26.9%	12.9%	41.1%	46.0%
2026-10-19T19:00:12+00:00	27.9%	26.9%	12.9%	41.1%	46.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00	30.3%	26.9%	12.9%	36.8%	42.1%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	30.3%	26.9%	12.9%	36.8%	42.1%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	30.3%	26.9%	12.9%	36.8%	42.1%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	30.3%	26.9%	12.9%	36.8%	42.1%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	30.3%	26.9%	12.9%	36.8%	42.1%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	30.3%	26.9%	11.7%	36.8%	42.1%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	30.3%	26.9%	11.7%	36.8%	42.1%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	30.3%	26.9%	11.7%	36.8%	42.1%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	28.7%	26.9%	11.7%	36.8%	42.1%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	28.7%	26.9%	11.7%	36.8%	42.1%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	28.7%	26.9%	11.7%	36.8%	42.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	87.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	42%	85.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	85.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	29%	84.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	85.0°F	2.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	82.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261022-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 87°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗