KSAT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST7%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

22%

22%

17%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 14.1¢Risks 7.03u

WN2NO 85.9¢Risks 42.97u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +42.97u · WN2 −42.97u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	27.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	22.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	—	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	47.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	43.7%	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	46.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	32.4%	—	—	22.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	0.0%	12.8%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	17.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	21.4%	11.9%	0.1%	—	26.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	41.3%	21.5%	17.9%	—	23.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	17.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	33.0%	13.8%	12.5%	—	21.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	33.7%	12.7%	15.9%	—	25.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	10.2%	—	—	23.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	32.2%	12.5%	12.5%	—	18.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	11.9%	13.7%	—	—	15.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	24.1%	13.1%	9.7%	—	16.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	17.8%	20.2%	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	20.9%	19.6%	7.3%	—	12.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	29.2%	17.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	22.5%	18.3%	8.6%	—	14.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	16.4%	20.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	18.3%	17.0%	6.1%	—	9.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	23.6%	19.0%	—	—	10.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	24.7%	19.8%	7.0%	2.9%	11.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	8.3%	0.0%	—	8.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	22%	85.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	22%	85.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	17%	84.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	9%	84.9°F	2.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	8%	84.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	83.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261022-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio runs hot-for-here: 89°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗