KSAT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

16%

15%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 9.3¢Risks 4.67u

WN2NO 90.6¢Risks 45.32u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.32u · WN2 −45.32u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	32.9%	—	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	20.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	—	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	41.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	37.6%	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	39.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	26.8%	—	—	18.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	14.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	0.0%	9.6%	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	16.6%	8.7%	0.0%	—	20.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	19.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	34.3%	16.5%	13.6%	—	17.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	13.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	26.4%	10.0%	9.0%	—	16.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	26.8%	9.0%	11.5%	—	19.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	7.0%	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	25.1%	8.7%	8.7%	—	13.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	8.2%	9.5%	—	—	11.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	17.8%	9.0%	6.5%	—	11.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	12.5%	14.5%	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	14.9%	13.9%	4.6%	—	8.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	21.7%	12.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	15.9%	12.6%	5.4%	—	9.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	11.0%	14.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	12.3%	11.3%	3.5%	—	6.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	16.3%	12.7%	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	16.9%	13.1%	4.0%	1.5%	7.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	4.8%	0.0%	—	5.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	16%	85.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	15%	85.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	84.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	5%	85.0°F	2.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	83.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	84.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261022-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in San Antonio · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗