KSAT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

72%

61%

45%

38%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 55.0¢Risks 55.05u

WN2NO 45.0¢Risks 44.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +44.95u · WN2 −44.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	63.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	40.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	58.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	51.2%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	71.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	46.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	62.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	—	53.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	0.7%	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	54.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	1.1%	32.4%	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	73.7%	63.1%	5.6%	—	56.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	66.3%	52.9%	53.6%	—	59.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	69.7%	50.8%	46.9%	—	53.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	49.2%	—	—	24.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	71.2%	51.6%	52.4%	—	54.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	62.1%	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	66.2%	56.6%	61.5%	—	48.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	50.0%	59.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	66.2%	57.0%	62.1%	—	52.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	56.3%	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	16.6%	52.8%	57.3%	60.0%	—	45.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	59.4%	55.7%	—	—	48.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	65.2%	60.6%	60.6%	20.3%	51.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	43.0%	—	—	39.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	72%	84.9°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	72%	85.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	84.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	84.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	83.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	83.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	38%	82.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261023-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 84°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗