KSAT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST8%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

26%

14%

14%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 20.2¢Risks 20.15u

WN2NO 79.8¢Risks 79.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +79.85u · WN2 −79.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	26.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	—	—	—	23.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	35.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	28.8%	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	48.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	24.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	37.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	0.1%	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	28.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	0.1%	12.8%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	47.2%	35.6%	1.1%	—	29.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	37.8%	25.4%	26.0%	—	31.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	40.2%	22.8%	20.0%	—	24.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	21.1%	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	40.5%	22.4%	23.0%	—	24.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	30.4%	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	33.8%	25.1%	29.3%	—	18.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	19.6%	26.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	32.2%	24.1%	28.4%	—	20.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	22.9%	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	19.6%	23.0%	25.1%	—	14.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	23.8%	21.0%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	27.9%	24.0%	24.0%	3.5%	17.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	11.9%	—	—	10.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	34%	85.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	84.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	18%	84.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	14%	83.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	84.9°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	82.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	83.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261023-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗