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KSAT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST8%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
34%
HRES
26%
AIFS
14%
EPS
14%
WN2
7%
Consensus
8%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 20.2¢Risks 20.15u
VS
WN2NO 79.8¢Risks 79.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +79.85u · WN2 −79.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 16.3% · 2026-10-20T04:05:21+00:00AIFS Single: 16.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00AIFS Single: 16.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00AIFS Single: 16.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00AIFS Single: 16.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00AIFS Single: 14.5% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00AIFS Single: 14.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00AIFS Single: 14.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00AIFS Single: 14.5% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00AIFS Single: 14.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 14.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 14.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00AIFS Single: 14.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.9% · 2026-10-20T04:05:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.9% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.2% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-20T04:05:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.8% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.8% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00IFS HRES: 27.4% · 2026-10-20T04:05:21+00:00IFS HRES: 27.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00IFS HRES: 27.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00IFS HRES: 27.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS HRES: 27.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS HRES: 27.4% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00IFS HRES: 27.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS HRES: 27.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS HRES: 27.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS HRES: 26.5% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00IFS HRES: 26.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 26.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 26.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS HRES: 26.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00ICON: 34.1% · 2026-10-20T04:05:21+00:00ICON: 34.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00ICON: 34.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00ICON: 34.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00ICON: 34.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00ICON: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00ICON: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00ICON: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00ICON: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00ICON: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00ICON: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00ICON: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00ICON: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:0010-20 04:0510-20 09:2210-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:05:21+00:0016.3%13.9%6.3%27.4%34.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:0016.3%13.9%6.3%27.4%34.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:0016.3%13.9%10.8%27.4%34.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:0016.3%13.9%10.8%27.4%34.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:0016.3%13.9%10.8%27.4%34.1%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:0014.5%13.9%10.8%27.4%33.5%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:0014.5%13.9%10.8%27.4%33.5%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:0014.5%13.9%10.8%27.4%33.5%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:0014.5%13.9%10.8%27.4%33.5%
2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:0014.5%14.2%6.8%26.5%33.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:0014.5%14.2%6.8%26.5%33.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:0014.5%14.2%6.8%26.5%33.5%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:0014.5%14.2%6.8%26.5%33.5%
2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:0014.5%14.2%6.8%26.5%33.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON34%85.8°F4.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES26%84.7°F4.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast18%84.0°F3.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
AIFS Single14%83.0°F4.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble14%84.9°F2.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 27%82.5°F3.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend2%83.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261023-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗