KSAT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

56%

40%

40%

30%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 45.4¢Risks 45.40u

WN2NO 54.6¢Risks 54.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +54.60u · WN2 −54.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	—	—	—	35.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	36.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	46.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	38.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	28.9%	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	0.1%	54.0%	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	39.6%	43.7%	0.7%	—	37.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	29.7%	47.8%	43.4%	—	38.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	44.7%	36.5%	45.4%	—	39.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	37.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	43.6%	42.1%	38.2%	—	39.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	50.0%	42.5%	40.9%	—	33.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	9.9%	53.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	47.4%	55.2%	54.4%	32.2%	36.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	35.9%	—	—	28.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	61%	86.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	86.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	86.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	84.9°F	2.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	84.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	83.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261024-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 86°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗