KSAT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

56%

40%

40%

30%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 45.4¢Risks 45.40u

WN2NO 54.6¢Risks 54.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +54.60u · WN2 −54.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-20T04:05:21+00:00	36.5%	44.8%	28.0%	46.6%	67.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	36.5%	44.8%	28.0%	46.6%	67.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	36.5%	44.8%	35.8%	46.6%	67.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	36.5%	44.8%	35.8%	46.6%	67.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	36.5%	44.8%	35.8%	46.6%	67.1%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00	39.7%	44.8%	35.8%	46.6%	61.3%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	39.7%	44.8%	35.8%	46.6%	61.3%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	39.7%	44.8%	35.8%	46.6%	61.3%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	39.7%	44.8%	35.8%	46.6%	61.3%
2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00	39.7%	39.7%	29.5%	55.6%	61.3%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	39.7%	39.7%	29.5%	55.6%	61.3%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	39.7%	39.7%	29.5%	55.6%	61.3%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	39.7%	39.7%	29.5%	55.6%	61.3%
2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00	39.6%	39.7%	29.5%	55.6%	61.3%
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00	39.6%	39.7%	29.5%	55.6%	61.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	61%	86.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	86.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	86.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	84.9°F	2.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	84.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	83.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261024-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 86°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗