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KSAT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST6%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
30%
HRES
25%
AIFS
13%
WN2
5%
EPS
2%
Consensus
6%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 16.0¢Risks 15.95u
VS
EPSNO 84.0¢Risks 84.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +84.05u · EPS −84.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 16.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 16.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 20.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.6% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 28.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.3% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 18.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 18.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 13.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 14.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 22.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 9.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.8% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.9% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.3% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-09 12:0010-15 00:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:000.1%————0.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:005.8%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:007.1%————11.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0010.5%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:000.4%————3.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0014.3%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:002.6%————7.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:005.2%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:005.2%————6.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:007.9%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:009.6%————14.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:002.4%—————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:008.3%————17.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0014.9%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0021.2%————16.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:005.9%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:006.2%————16.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0016.4%—————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.6%————16.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0014.0%—0.3%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0011.0%————17.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:005.3%—————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:005.8%————20.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0011.6%—17.3%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0010.1%————20.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:006.1%—24.3%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:003.8%————21.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:005.8%—17.6%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:006.2%—11.3%——19.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:004.2%—25.3%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:004.2%0.0%28.2%——18.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:005.4%—24.5%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:003.8%16.6%19.4%0.1%—15.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:003.6%—23.1%———
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:003.2%10.3%21.5%18.4%—15.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:003.3%—27.4%———
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:003.2%18.4%13.4%18.9%—15.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:003.0%—13.7%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:003.4%16.9%15.9%13.6%—14.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:002.4%—20.1%———
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:002.6%20.1%15.2%14.3%—10.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:002.3%1.6%22.0%——0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:002.4%17.2%22.8%22.1%9.0%10.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:001.8%—10.3%——7.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON30%86.9°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES25%86.2°F5.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast22%86.0°F4.5°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
AIFS Single13%84.3°F4.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 25%83.5°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend5%84.0°F3.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%84.9°F2.3°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261024-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in San Antonio · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗