KSAT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST6%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

25%

13%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 16.0¢Risks 15.95u

EPSNO 84.0¢Risks 84.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +84.05u · EPS −84.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:57+00:00	13.7%	15.9%	13.5%	21.9%	3.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	13.7%	15.9%	13.5%	21.9%	3.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	13.7%	15.9%	13.5%	21.9%	3.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	13.7%	15.9%	13.5%	21.9%	3.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	13.7%	15.9%	13.5%	21.9%	3.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	13.7%	14.9%	10.5%	21.9%	3.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	13.7%	14.9%	10.5%	21.9%	3.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	13.7%	14.9%	10.5%	21.9%	3.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	17.4%	14.9%	10.5%	21.9%	3.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	17.4%	14.9%	10.5%	21.9%	3.5%
2026-10-17T15:25:08+00:00	17.4%	11.8%	10.5%	21.9%	3.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	17.4%	11.8%	10.5%	21.9%	3.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	17.4%	11.8%	10.2%	21.9%	3.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	17.4%	11.8%	10.2%	21.9%	3.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	17.4%	11.8%	10.2%	21.9%	3.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	17.4%	11.8%	10.2%	21.9%	3.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	14.0%	11.8%	10.2%	29.9%	46.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	14.0%	11.8%	10.2%	29.9%	46.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	14.0%	11.8%	10.2%	29.9%	46.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	14.0%	11.8%	10.2%	29.9%	46.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	14.0%	11.8%	8.8%	29.9%	46.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	14.0%	11.8%	8.8%	29.9%	46.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	14.0%	11.8%	8.8%	29.9%	46.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	14.0%	11.8%	8.8%	29.9%	46.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	14.0%	11.8%	8.8%	29.9%	46.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	14.0%	11.8%	8.8%	29.9%	46.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	14.0%	11.8%	8.8%	29.9%	46.8%
2026-10-18T04:14:30+00:00	14.0%	11.8%	8.8%	29.9%	46.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	14.0%	11.8%	10.2%	29.9%	46.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	14.0%	11.8%	10.2%	29.9%	46.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	14.0%	11.8%	10.2%	29.9%	46.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	14.0%	11.8%	10.2%	29.9%	46.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:41+00:00	11.8%	11.8%	10.2%	32.5%	32.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	11.8%	11.8%	10.2%	32.5%	32.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	11.8%	11.8%	10.2%	32.5%	32.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	11.8%	11.8%	10.2%	32.5%	32.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	11.8%	5.1%	6.7%	32.5%	32.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00	11.8%	5.1%	6.7%	32.5%	32.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:51+00:00	11.8%	5.1%	6.7%	32.5%	32.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	11.8%	5.1%	6.7%	32.5%	32.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	13.0%	5.5%	6.7%	32.5%	32.7%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00	13.0%	5.5%	6.7%	32.5%	32.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:33+00:00	13.0%	3.5%	6.7%	32.5%	32.7%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	13.0%	3.5%	6.7%	32.5%	32.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	13.0%	3.5%	7.0%	32.5%	32.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	13.0%	3.5%	7.0%	32.5%	32.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	13.0%	3.5%	7.0%	32.5%	32.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	13.8%	3.5%	7.0%	32.5%	44.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	13.8%	3.5%	7.0%	32.5%	44.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	13.8%	3.5%	7.0%	32.5%	44.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	13.8%	3.5%	7.0%	32.5%	44.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	13.8%	3.5%	7.0%	32.5%	44.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00	13.8%	3.5%	7.3%	32.5%	44.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	13.8%	3.5%	7.3%	32.5%	44.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	13.8%	3.5%	7.3%	32.5%	44.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	13.8%	3.5%	7.3%	32.5%	44.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	13.8%	3.5%	7.3%	32.5%	44.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	13.8%	3.5%	7.3%	32.5%	44.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	13.8%	3.5%	7.3%	32.5%	44.4%
2026-10-19T04:31:21+00:00	13.8%	3.5%	7.3%	32.5%	44.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	13.8%	3.5%	8.9%	32.5%	44.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	13.8%	3.5%	8.9%	32.5%	44.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	13.8%	3.5%	8.9%	32.5%	44.4%
2026-10-19T07:33:34+00:00	13.8%	3.5%	8.9%	27.9%	36.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	13.8%	3.5%	8.9%	27.9%	36.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	13.8%	3.5%	8.9%	27.9%	36.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	13.8%	3.5%	8.9%	27.9%	36.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00	13.8%	3.5%	8.9%	27.9%	36.6%
2026-10-19T11:21:10+00:00	13.8%	3.7%	6.3%	27.9%	36.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	13.8%	3.7%	6.3%	27.9%	36.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	13.8%	3.7%	6.3%	27.9%	36.6%
2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00	10.9%	3.7%	6.3%	27.9%	36.6%
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00	10.8%	3.7%	6.3%	27.8%	36.5%
2026-10-19T15:13:49+00:00	10.8%	3.1%	6.3%	27.8%	36.5%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	10.8%	3.1%	6.3%	27.8%	36.5%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	10.8%	3.1%	6.3%	27.8%	36.5%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	10.8%	3.1%	5.4%	27.8%	36.5%
2026-10-19T18:14:40+00:00	10.8%	3.1%	5.4%	27.8%	36.5%
2026-10-19T19:00:12+00:00	10.8%	3.1%	5.4%	27.8%	36.5%
2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00	12.8%	3.1%	5.4%	21.8%	41.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	12.8%	3.1%	5.4%	21.8%	41.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	12.8%	3.1%	5.4%	21.8%	41.6%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	12.8%	3.1%	5.4%	21.8%	41.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	12.8%	3.1%	5.4%	21.8%	41.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	12.8%	3.1%	6.0%	21.8%	41.6%
2026-10-20T00:17:03+00:00	12.8%	3.1%	6.0%	21.8%	41.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	12.8%	3.1%	6.0%	21.8%	41.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	12.4%	3.1%	6.0%	21.8%	41.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	12.4%	3.1%	6.0%	21.8%	41.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	12.4%	3.1%	6.0%	21.8%	41.6%
2026-10-20T04:05:22+00:00	12.4%	3.1%	6.0%	21.8%	41.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	12.4%	3.1%	6.0%	21.8%	41.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	12.4%	3.1%	9.0%	21.8%	41.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	12.4%	3.1%	9.0%	21.8%	41.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	12.4%	3.1%	9.0%	21.8%	41.6%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00	12.8%	3.1%	9.0%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	12.8%	3.1%	9.0%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	12.8%	3.1%	9.0%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	12.8%	3.1%	9.0%	21.8%	29.7%
2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00	12.8%	2.3%	5.3%	25.5%	29.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	12.8%	2.3%	5.3%	25.5%	29.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	12.8%	2.3%	5.3%	25.5%	29.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	12.8%	2.3%	5.3%	25.5%	29.7%
2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00	12.8%	2.3%	5.3%	25.4%	29.6%
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00	12.8%	2.3%	5.3%	25.4%	29.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	30%	86.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	86.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	22%	86.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	84.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	5%	83.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	84.9°F	2.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261024-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in San Antonio · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗